14 May 2011

Gammon India – EBITDA swung into losses: RBS

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Gammon reported 4QFY11 standalone EBITDA loss of Rs.530mn and a negative margin of
3% (4QFY10 profit: Rs.1.3bn), due to high raw material expenses. We await for the
management call for further clarification. Normalized loss for the quarter was Rs.738mn
versus RBS estimate of Rs.239mn profit. Sell.
4QFY11 standalone results: EBITDA swung in to losses
􀀟 Net revenue for 4Q came in at Rs.17.5bn, up 4.6% yoy and 27% qoq. RBS estimate was
Rs.16.5bn.
􀀟 EBITDA for the quarter was a loss of Rs.530mn as against a profit of Rs.1.3bn in 4QFY10
and Rs.1.1bn in 3QFY11. RBS estimate was a profit of Rs.1.3bn.
􀀟 EBITDA margin for the quarter declined sharply to -3% as against +7.5% in 4QFY10 and
+8.1% in 3QFY11.
􀀟 Higher raw material expenses were the reason behind the sharp EBITDA decline as raw
material to sales ratio rose to 59.3% vs 43.3% in 4QFY10 and 46.4% in last quarter. We
await for analyst conference call for clarification on this item.
􀀟 Normalized net interest rose 13% qoq to Rs.577mn; RBS estimate was Rs.598mn.
􀀟 Non operating income came at Rs.357mn vs Rs.2mn in previous quarter. RBS estimate
was Rs.1mn. We await for explanation from the management.
􀀟 PBT for the quarter was a loss of Rs.1.0bn vs Rs.593mn profit in 4QFY10. RBS estimate
was Rs.377mn profit.
􀀟 Normalized net loss was Rs.738mn as against a profit of Rs.381mn in 4QFY10 and
Rs.247mn in 3QFY11. RBS estimate was Rs.239mn profit.
􀀟 Accounting for a one time interest income of Rs.1.8bn from a subsidiary, the reported
profit for the quarter was Rs.605mn, up 10% yoy.
􀀟 Normalized EPS for the quarter was negative Rs.5.4.


FY11 standalone results: Normalized profit declined 73% yoy
􀀟 Standalone net revenue for the full year came in at Rs.56.1bn, up 25% yoy
􀀟 EBITDA came in at Rs.4.2bn, down 28% yoy as margins declined sharply by 390bps yoy
to 5.4% mainly on account of higher raw material expenses
􀀟 Normalized net interest also rose 36% yoy to Rs.1.9bn
􀀟 Normalized PBT declined 75% yoy to Rs.492mn
􀀟 Normalized PAT for the year came in at Rs.370mn, down 73% yoy with normalized EPS
at Rs.2.7
􀀟 Account for one offs, the reported profit came at Rs.1.2bn, still down 1% yoy.
We wait for management call before adjusting our forecasts
􀀟 The management call with analyst is scheduled on 13th May, 2012 at 4:30PM and we
wait for clarification on certain points (e.g. reason for high raw material cost) before
adjusting our forecasts. Full year consolidated numbers are not yet published and we
expect management to make some announcement for the publication date of the same.
As Gammon India continues to disappoint us, we maintain Sell.


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