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Q4FY11 results above expectations: Exide reported 18.8% QoQ improvement in
its top‐line at Rs12.5bn, mainly led by strong traction in the OEM segment, price
hike in the replacement segment and a sequential improvement in the industrial
side of the business. On account of robust top‐line and inventory gains during
the quarter, EBITDA margins for the quarter improved by 350bps QoQ at 18.7%
(we saw 16.6%). As a result, PAT for the quarter grew by 31.5% QoQ at Rs1.64bn
(we saw Rs1.35bn).
Product mix likely to improve, with enhanced capacity by Q2FY12E: Currently,
the replacement segment accounts for ~52% of the total automotive segment
revenues, with OEM segment accounting for the rest. We expect the share of
replacement to go up gradually to ~56%, once the capacity ramps up in the
automotive segment. Automotive four‐wheeler battery capacity, currently,
stands at 9.6m units, which is likely to be enhanced to 12m units by December
2011.
Operating performance likely to improve: We expect better times ahead on
account of new capacities coming on‐stream and higher sourcing from its own
smelters. Currently, ~45% of the sourcing is done from these smelters which is
likely to increase to 60% by the end of FY12E. Exide enjoys a cost advantage of
10% over the LME Lead prices on sourcing from its in‐house smelters.
Valuations attractive: We revise our earnings estimates upwards by 4‐5% to
take into account the current quarter’s performance. Adjusting for Exide’s 50%
stake in ING Life Insurance and other subsidiaries (valued at Rs15/share), the
stock is trading at 14.2x FY12E and 12.0x FY13E earnings, respectively. The
current valuation seems attractive, given the earnings CAGR of 19.9% for FY11‐
FY13E period. We re‐iterate our ‘Accumulate’ call on the stock.
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Q4FY11 results above expectations: Exide reported 18.8% QoQ improvement in
its top‐line at Rs12.5bn, mainly led by strong traction in the OEM segment, price
hike in the replacement segment and a sequential improvement in the industrial
side of the business. On account of robust top‐line and inventory gains during
the quarter, EBITDA margins for the quarter improved by 350bps QoQ at 18.7%
(we saw 16.6%). As a result, PAT for the quarter grew by 31.5% QoQ at Rs1.64bn
(we saw Rs1.35bn).
Product mix likely to improve, with enhanced capacity by Q2FY12E: Currently,
the replacement segment accounts for ~52% of the total automotive segment
revenues, with OEM segment accounting for the rest. We expect the share of
replacement to go up gradually to ~56%, once the capacity ramps up in the
automotive segment. Automotive four‐wheeler battery capacity, currently,
stands at 9.6m units, which is likely to be enhanced to 12m units by December
2011.
Operating performance likely to improve: We expect better times ahead on
account of new capacities coming on‐stream and higher sourcing from its own
smelters. Currently, ~45% of the sourcing is done from these smelters which is
likely to increase to 60% by the end of FY12E. Exide enjoys a cost advantage of
10% over the LME Lead prices on sourcing from its in‐house smelters.
Valuations attractive: We revise our earnings estimates upwards by 4‐5% to
take into account the current quarter’s performance. Adjusting for Exide’s 50%
stake in ING Life Insurance and other subsidiaries (valued at Rs15/share), the
stock is trading at 14.2x FY12E and 12.0x FY13E earnings, respectively. The
current valuation seems attractive, given the earnings CAGR of 19.9% for FY11‐
FY13E period. We re‐iterate our ‘Accumulate’ call on the stock.
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