07 May 2011

Buy Phoenix Mills: PML 4QFY11 results in line; targets 70-75% operating margin : Motilal Oswal

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 Results in line: Phoenix Mills (PML) posted 4QFY11 results in line with our estimates. EBITDA grew by 62.1% YoY
to Rs321m (against our estimate of Rs323m) and EBITDA margin was 68.6% against 72.6% in 3QFY11. A decline in
EBITDA margin in 4QFY11 was due to higher maintenance expenditure in High Street Phoenix (HSP). Revenue,
which is mainly driven by HSP, grew by 35.7% YoY to Rs468m (against our estimate of Rs461m). Rental from HSP
increased 4% QoQ due to higher revenue share realizations. Net profit was Rs272m, up 72.9% YoY (against our
estimate of Rs206m).
 Expect impact of rental renegotiation at HSP from 1QFY12: Rentals at HSP are likely to grow steadily due to repricing
of old rental contracts of ~0.15msf. In 4QF11, PML entered into a re-pricing agreement with one of its key
anchor tenants, ending up with ~40% increase over the existing rental. The management expects a 20% growth in
operating income in HSP in FY12, with the weighted average rental moving to Rs175-180/sf/month against the
existing rental of Rs155/sf/month. We estimate rental income from HSP's retail and commercial assets to grow to
Rs2b in FY12 (against Rs1.8b in FY11).
 Pune mall may start in 1QFY12, stake increase in Bangalore a positive: PML's Market City projects' retail
portions are in an advanced stage of completion and delivery is expected over next 3-9 months. The Pune mall is
likely to start operations in May 2011. We expect rental income from PML's Market City projects to be ~Rs625m in
FY12. In 4QFY11, PML increased its stake in Phoenix Market City, Bangalore (E) from 32.7% to 37.8%, by acquiring
the remaining 33.3% stake in Pinnacle Real Estate Development Private Limited. Since improving market outlook
and steady progress in execution augur well for a robust upside, we believe steady increase in stakes in its Market
City projects will be a key positive for PML.
 Valuation and view: We believe PML is a unique play on the booming domestic consumption story. We expect its
annuity income to be boosted with ~Rs2.8b of annuity income in FY12 against Rs1.8b in FY11. Steady monetization
of its commercial and residential projects will be key triggers in this regard. Successful fund raising by EWPL at
attractive valuations will be NAV accretive for PML. Our NAV estimate for PML is Rs260, with the retail vertical
contributing 63% of GAV. The stock trades at a PER of 15.3x FY13E EPS of Rs13.2, 1.5x FY13E BV of Rs135.6 and
29% discount to our NAV of Rs260. Maintain Buy.
PML 4QFY11 results in line; targets 70-75% operating margin at HSP in
FY12
 Phoenix Mills posted 4QFY11 results in line with our estimates. EBITDA grew by
62.1% YoY to Rs321m (against our estimate of Rs323m) and EBITDA margin was
68.6% against 72.6% in 3QFY11.
 A decline in EBITDA margin in 4QFY11 was due to higher maintenance expenditure
in High Street Phoenix (HSP). While the management mentioned that continuous
upgrading of HSP mall could trigger expenses, it is confident of maintaining operating
margins of 70-75% in HSP in FY12.
 Revenue, which is mainly driven by HSP, grew by 35.7% YoY to Rs468m (against our
estimate of Rs461m). The YoY increase in revenue was largely due to (a) commissioning
of the Palladium Mall and (b) increase in contribution from revenue sharing from
2QFY11. Rentals from HSP increased 4% QoQ due to higher revenue share
realizations.
 Net profit was Rs272m, up 72.9% YoY (against our estimate of Rs206m) due to
higher-than-expected other income of Rs141m (due to a one-off case of TDR sale of
~Rs90m).
 FY11 standalone revenue was Rs1.8b, a 43.6% YoY jump and EBITDA grew 62.5%
YoY to Rs1.3b. PML improved EBITDA margin from 65% in FY10 to 71.3% in FY11
due to improving operational efficiency like improved energy consumption, a decline
in promotional expenses and lower repair and maintenance costs. Net profit was
Rs913m, up 49.1% YoY. The commissioning of The Palladium and the parking facility
resulted in a higher depreciation of Rs277m (against Rs172m in FY10) and a steady
repayment of standalone debt to Rs400m led to a sharp reduction in interest expenses.
Expect steady rental up-tick from revenue sharing, renegotiation at HSP
 HSP has established itself as one of the most successful retail malls in India with over
1m average footfalls a month. PML's effort to uplift HSP's image through improvement
of its brand-mix and customer experience has been steadily bolstering revenue potential
of retail spaces, which augurs well for the company, with a large portion of the retailers
being under revenue sharing agreements.
 In 4QFY11 rental income from HSP grew 35.7% YoY and ~4% QoQ, mainly due to
increased contribution from revenue sharing. The new stores that commenced operation
at HSP, in 4QFY11 include Timberland, California Pizza Kitchen, Paul & Shark, Aldo,
Canon and Remanika.
 The management indicated that ~10% of its lease revenue at HSP was contributed by
the revenue sharing agreement and it expects a 10-15% annual growth in such a
contribution in the backdrop of a strong performance outlook by key retailers.
 HSP is likely to grow strongly by re-pricing old rental contracts of ~0.15msf. While
the impact of renegotiation, which was expected in 4QFY11, has been delayed, PML
negotiated a ~40% increase in rentals with one of its key anchor tenants.
 As per the agreement, the tenant will come under a revenue sharing agreement with
a minimum guarantee of Rs90/sf/month (first year), Rs95/sf/month (second year) and
Rs100/sf/month (third year) or 7% of revenue, against its existing fixed rental agreement
of Rs65/sf/month.


 PML is in talks with two other HSP tenants, the management is hopeful of achieving
similar re-pricing for the rest of the 0.1msf. In 4QFY11, the company has also maintained
robust lease rental for its new transaction with ~18,000sf of space leased ~Rs250/sf/
month.
 The management expects a 20% growth in operating income at HSP in FY12, with
the weighted average rental moving to Rs175-180/sf/month, against the existing rental
of Rs155/sf/month. We estimate rental income from HSP's retail and commercial
assets will grow to Rs2b in FY12 (Rs1.8b in FY11).


Market City projects set for rental growth; stake increase a positive move
 PML's Market City projects' retail portions are in an advanced stage of completion
and the delivery is expected over next 3-9 months.
 Pune Mall: The mall is ready to start operations by May 2011. Out of 280 stores,
~150 retailers are expected to complete their fit-out work and start operations from
June 2011. Most of the approvals have been received regarding the start of operations.
Kurla Mall: The fit-out work is progressing well and the mall is expected to be
operational by 2QFY11.
Bangalore Mall: The fit-out work is progressing well and the mall is expected to be
operational by 2QFY11.
Chennai Mall: The mall is expected to start operations by the end of CY11.
 While incremental leasing in its Market City projects were subdued over the past six
months, the management said PML was comfortable with 60-70% leasing in its Market
City projects and expected better rentals for the remaining portion after the start of
operations, due to an improving market outlook.
 We expect rental income from PML's Market City projects to be ~Rs625m in FY12.
 In 4QFY11, PML increased its stake in Phoenix Market City, Bangalore (E) from
32.7% to 37.8%, by acquiring the remaining 33.3% stake in Pinnacle Real Estate
Development Private Limited. The management said the transaction occurred in two
tranches between co-promoters and hence, was valued at a very attractive rate of
~Rs98m, which implied equity valuation of Rs1.7b-1.95b for the project. Since improving
market outlook and steady progress in execution augurs well for a robust upside, we
believe, a continuous increase in stake in its Market City project would be a key
positive for PML.


Status of other projects
 PML has been monetizing a part of its commercial projects at Market City Kurla and
Pune. With 65-70% of these projects being sold, the management expects strong
revenue contribution from the projects in FY12. The status of the projects are as
follows:
Kurla Market City Commercial: PML's sales were ~0.18msf (Rs1.6b) out of
0.25msf (Rs2.2b) and it collected ~Rs700m. Revenue booking is likely to start from
2QFY12. The average sale rate is Rs9,000/sf.
Pune Market City Commercial: PML's sales were ~0.145msf (Rs900m) and it
collected ~Rs700m. The project is likely to become operational in FY12 and contribute
to revenue from 4QFY11. The average sale rate is Rs6,200/sf.
 PML plans to launch its residential projects in Market City Bangalore and Chennai
over the next 3-9 months and expects this vertical to develop almost 3msf over the
next 3-5 years.
 There has been a delay in the start of operations of the 400-room Shangri-La Hotel.
The management guided for 2QFY12 as the target operational date for the first 230-
rooms. The project is in an advanced stage of completion with the facade and installation
work in progress and ~Rs2.5b yet to be incurred on it. PML has 51% stake in the
property.
 In 1QFY12, EWDL, one of PML's investee companies, commissioned the Treasure
Bazaar in Ujjain. The mall measures 0.30msf and ~80% will be leased. About 20
retailers have started operations. Key anchors include Big Bazaar, Reliance Trends,
Reliance Footprints, Fashion Yatra and Funscapes.



Consolidated gross debt increases to Rs8.3b; net DER (x) at 0.4x
 As on 31 March 2011, PML's standalone debt was Rs0.4b and its consolidated net
debt was Rs6.4b, implying net DER(x) of 0.4x. In 2HFY11 gross debt increased
mainly due to an additional draw down of Rs2.3b for Shangri-La Hotel.
 The management said PML, along with its subsidiaries, had a sanctioned limit of
Rs21b, of which it has drawn down ~Rs19b, including PML's share of Rs9.5b. Some
of the debts are nearing their schedule. The management sees a solid cushion against
any liquidity concern on the back of (1) strong contribution of annuity income from
HSP and Market City malls, (2) cash flow from residential and commercial sales.
Going forward, it has also hinted at possible re-financing under the lease rental
discounting model.
Valuation and view
 We believe PML is a unique play on the booming domestic consumption story. We
expect its annuity income to get a boost with ~Rs2.8b of annuity income in FY12
against Rs1.7b in FY11, largely due to (a) rental up-tick in HSP (effect of revenue
sharing and repricing) and (b) the start of Market City malls and the Shangri-La
Hotel. Monetization of its commercial and residential projects will be key triggers in
this regard.
 PML's 40% associate company Entertainment World Developers (EWPL) filed its
prospectus with SEBI in July 2010. EWPL is developing ~23msf of retail area in 14
projects across eight Indian cities. Successful fund raising by EWPL at attractive
valuations would be NAV accretive for PML.
 Our NAV estimate for PML is Rs260 with the retail vertical contributing 63% of
GAV. The stock trades at a PER of 15.3x FY13E EPS of Rs13.2, 1.5x FY13E BV of
Rs135.6 and a 29% discount to our NAV of Rs260. Maintain Buy.


Company description
Phoenix Mills is a pioneer in the development of large-scale,
mixed-format retail development in India. It is a unique,
low-risk play on the booming domestic consumption story
with no retail-specific risks. Through its subsidiaries and
associate companies it is undertaking 40 retail/ hospitality
projects, totaling ~50msf, across India. It owns one of the
most successful malls in India, High Street Phoenix (HSP),
in Parel, Mumbai. We estimate, after the completion HSP's
expansion, rental income from HSP will increase from
~Rs1.3b in FY10 to ~Rs2b in FY12.
Key investment arguments
 According to the Global Retail Development Index
(GRDI), organized retail in India is set to increase from
~5% in 2007 to ~14% by 2013. Industry experts estimate
the number of operational malls will cross 412, with
205msf by 2010, and 715 malls will be added by 2015,
due to retail development in tier-II and tier-III Indian
cities. We believe PML is well poised to benefit from
this strong growth.
 Since FY07, PML attracted ~US$578m of investment
at various SPV levels from marquee investors. We
believe these strategic financial alliances provide PML
with the requisite financial muscle to pursue large, capital
intensive projects.
Recent developments
 During 4QFY11, PML has increased its stake in
Phoenix Market City, Bangalore (E) from 32.7% to
37.8%, by acquiring the remaining 33.3% stake in
Pinnacle Real Estate Development Private Limited.
 PML's negotiation with one of its key anchor tenants
has resulted in ~40% increase over the existing rental.
Valuation and view
 Our NAV estimate for PML is Rs260, with the retail
vertical contributing 63% of GAV. The stock trades at
a PER of 15.3x FY13E EPS of Rs13.2, 1.5x FY13E
BV of Rs135.6 and 29% discount to our NAV of Rs260.
Maintain Buy.
Sector view
 The real estate sector seems to be on the recovery
path following the balance sheet recapitalization by key
real estate companies, shifting focus on execution and
a pick-up in sales momentum. While the broad based
recovery in the residential vertical has been a key
growth driver in the past one year, the revival in the
commercial and retail segments will strengthen the
sector outlook.






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