17 April 2011

Tata Motors ::Led by Land Rover, JLR closes a strong fiscal :: Religare Research

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Tata Motors Ltd
Led by Land Rover, JLR closes a strong fiscal
Jaguar Land Rover’s (JLR) March volume scorecard of 24,101 units was marginally
ahead of our expectations. Coming on the back of already strong Feb volumes
(historically a lean month), the volumes for March point to a definite strength in
the underlying demand environment. JLR’s good run was led by the Land Rover
brand which recorded its highest volumes in FY11. Other luxury car majors
continued to perform well, ending the Jan–Mar quarter with strong numbers across
geographies. Sustained momentum in the luxury car market, specifically the US
and China, recovery in key European economies and new product launches suggest
continuation of a healthy volume run-rate in the months to come. We have a BUY
rating on Tata Motors (TTMT) with a target price of Rs 1,500.

JLR’s volume scorecard
 JLR’s total volumes stood at 24,101 units (+2.6% YoY, 11.3% MoM). Jaguar
volumes came in at 3,772 units (-18% YoY, +17.4% MoM), while that of
Land Rover stood at 20,329 units (+7.6% YoY, +10.2% MoM).
 Our FY12 volume estimate for JLR builds in ~15% volume growth (monthly
run-rate of ~23,000 units).
 As in the past, the US market exhibited strong growth. The UK market
expectedly reported strong registrations, partially due to seasonality. (Note:
EU new car registrations have not been reported so far for March ’11)
Global luxury market review
 Luxury players reported robust volumes for the month concluding the
quarter with double-digit growth (YoY): Audi: 18.4% | BMW: 21.3%|
Mercedes-Benz: 12.7%. Geographically, while the US and China continue
to be prime pockets of growth in the March quarter, Europe too lent strong
support to overall numbers, specifically in case of Audi and BMW.
 Audi AG, with a ~14% growth in sales, ended its best ever first quarter,
achieving strong double-digit growth across regions. BMW sold more
vehicles in March than ever before in a month, registering a growth of 15%
YoY. Helped by China (+80% YoY) and the US (+9.4% YoY), Mercedes-
Benz reported a volume growth of 8% YoY on a higher base of last year;
barring the UK, growth from other Euro-zone economies remained lackluster
for the company.

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