Tata Motors- Buy- Robust volumes for Land Rover but Jaguar softer: Deutsche bank,

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Tata Motors Ltd Buy
Robust volumes for Land Rover but Jaguar a shade softer


Volumes for Mar-11 for Land Rover have remained robust at 20,329 units
(8% YoY). However, Jaguar volumes have been a shade softer at 3,772
(-19% YoY). Overall, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) volumes for March 2011 at
24,101 (+2% YoY) and FY11 volumes at 241,571 (+25% YoY) are in line with
management guidance of 240K units. WIth respect to our FY11 estimates,
Land Rover volumes have come in 2% ahead and Jaguar volumes have
lagged by 15%.
For FY12, we have forecast Jaguar and Land Rover volumes at 69K and
212K units, respectively. We note that Jaguar sales performance would
need to improve materially to achieve our FY12 estimate.
4QFY11 estimates: Consolidated revenue: Rs 35.9bn (22.5% YoY), EBITDA: Rs 4.52bn (44% YoY), EBITDA margin: 12.7% (-140bps QoQ), Consolidated PAT: Rs 2.4bn.
Maintain Buy with a target price of Rs 1465. The stock currently trades at
4.2x FY12E EV/EBITDA.