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Sun Pharmaceutical
Industries
Taxotere – Takeaways from
Hospira Conference Call
Quick Comment: Hospira discussed evolving market
dynamics for generic Taxotere (US$1.2 bln brand sales)
in the US market. Hospira received approval for this
product in Mar. 2011. Key takeaways from the call are:
• Generic Taxotere is currently a two player generic
market, with Winthrop being the authorized
generic, which entered the market marginally
ahead of Hospira.
• Market share: Hospira currently has 30-35%
market share and expects it to be in the range of
25-30% in the longer term.
• Price erosion: Current generic pricing is at
45-50% discount to brand.
• Sun could enter in C2Q11: Hospira expects
Sun Pharma to get approval sometime in C2Q11.
Our view: For Sun, we have assumed early C2Q11
launch and US$125 mln sales opportunity for FY12 with
50% price erosion and 20% market share. Sun is
disadvantaged as a later entrant and double vial
formulation.
Imiquimod approval – Separately, Taro (Sun’s 65%
subsidiary) received USFDA approval for generic Aldara
cream (imiquimod), a US$293 mln current market with
two generic players (Nycomed and Perrigo). Recently
FDA approved three additional generic players – Taro,
Teva and Tolmar. If it remains a five-player market, then
this may become a reasonably profitable opportunity for
Sun. At a further 50% price discount and 20% market
share, this could be a $30 mln sales opportunity for Sun
(not in our model) with high margins and a long window
of monetization. We remain OW on Sun.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Sun Pharmaceutical
Industries
Taxotere – Takeaways from
Hospira Conference Call
Quick Comment: Hospira discussed evolving market
dynamics for generic Taxotere (US$1.2 bln brand sales)
in the US market. Hospira received approval for this
product in Mar. 2011. Key takeaways from the call are:
• Generic Taxotere is currently a two player generic
market, with Winthrop being the authorized
generic, which entered the market marginally
ahead of Hospira.
• Market share: Hospira currently has 30-35%
market share and expects it to be in the range of
25-30% in the longer term.
• Price erosion: Current generic pricing is at
45-50% discount to brand.
• Sun could enter in C2Q11: Hospira expects
Sun Pharma to get approval sometime in C2Q11.
Our view: For Sun, we have assumed early C2Q11
launch and US$125 mln sales opportunity for FY12 with
50% price erosion and 20% market share. Sun is
disadvantaged as a later entrant and double vial
formulation.
Imiquimod approval – Separately, Taro (Sun’s 65%
subsidiary) received USFDA approval for generic Aldara
cream (imiquimod), a US$293 mln current market with
two generic players (Nycomed and Perrigo). Recently
FDA approved three additional generic players – Taro,
Teva and Tolmar. If it remains a five-player market, then
this may become a reasonably profitable opportunity for
Sun. At a further 50% price discount and 20% market
share, this could be a $30 mln sales opportunity for Sun
(not in our model) with high margins and a long window
of monetization. We remain OW on Sun.
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