NTPC Neutral NTPC.BO, NATP IN 4Q provisional results as expected, capacity addition lags targets

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NTPC Neutral
NTPC.BO, NATP IN
4Q provisional results as expected, capacity addition
lags targets


• NTPC reported 4Q PAT of Rs25B (up 24% yoy) just a tad below our
estimate of Rs25.8B and consensus estimate of Rs26.7B. In our view,
NTPC has not used a higher tax rate for its ROE calculation and has
continued to use the MAT rate (we were partially factoring this in our
4Q estimates). The press release does not contain the PBT number;
hence it is difficult to determine the actual tax rate in 4Q. In 9MFY11
NTPC had used the lower MAT rate vs. the normal tax rate for grossing
up ROE, depressing PAT by Rs7.23B (11.4% of reported PAT).
• Net revenue was up 17% yoy in 4Q with the commissioning of new
projects. However number of units sold was down 1.5% yoy. Compared
to the YTD performance, PLF for coal based plants improved in 4Q
(~92%, down ~550bps yoy) while that of gas based plants was flat
(~72%, down ~1100bps yoy). While overall plant availability continued
to remain high at > 90%. In FY11, PLF was lower by ~250bps yoy to
88.3% for coal based plants and more sharply down by ~660bps yoy to
71.7% for gas based capacity.
• In FY11 NTPC commissioned 1GW of capacity (1.5GW including
JVs) in the year vs. the scaled down target of 3.15GW. However an
additional 1.6GW (500MW @ Farakka, 500MW @ Simhadri, 660MW
@ Sipat) has been synchronized as well. The FY12 MOU target is to add
4.32GW of capacity (scaled down from >5GW) vs. our estimate of
3.4GW.