17 April 2011

Metals and Mining - 4Q11 (March 2011) Preview:: Emkay

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Metals and Mining
n Higher realizations and better volumes during Q4FY11 would reflect through increased revenues across the sector.
We expect our Metals and Mining universe to post a revenue growth of 15% YoY and 7% QoQ basis. In terms of
revenue growth on YoY basis, we expect Sterlite Industries (+21%) to be the outperformer followed by Sesa Goa
(+18%) and JSW Steel (17%). Tata Steel and GPIL also are likely to post a YoY revenue growth of ~12%. On QoQ
basis, Sesa Goa (+27%) and GPIL (+17%) are expected to remain top performers
n Despite jump in revenue on YoY basis, the EBITDA for our coverage universe is likely to fall 6% mainly due to margin
pressure in case of Tata Steel (-17%) and JSW Steel (-3%). On QoQ basis despite rise in input costs, significantly
higher realizations enabled the EBITDA of our coverage universe to grow by 20%. Accordingly better EBITDA
performance would be seen in Sesa Goa (+34%), JSW Steel (+26%), GPIL (+20%) and Sterlite (+17%)
n Following the trend in EBITDA, the PAT of our coverage universe is likely to post a drop of 18% YoY primarily due to
Tata Steel (-48%) and JSW Steel (-9%). On QoQ basis, backed by good operational performance, we expect a PAT
growth of 39% for our universe. Major QoQ improvement in PAT is likely for JSW Steel (+61%) and Tata Steel (+53%).
Others viz. Sesa Goa (+33%), Sterlite (+28%) and GPIL (+28%) too are likely to show better performance on QoQ basis
n During the Q4FY11, domestic steel companies raised prices by Rs 5000- 6000/ tonne on the back of good demand and
rise in iron ore and coking coal prices. Non- ferrous metals also saw sharp jump in LME prices due to recovery hope
in developed markets and investment demand
n Among major corporate actions Tata Steel raised Rs 3466 cr through FPO and Rs 1500 cr through perpetual bond,
VAL tied up Rs 16000 cr for its aluminium project and Sesa Goa bought assets of Bellary Steel for Rs 220 cr. We
expect M&As/ JVs/ consolidations to continue in this space

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