01 April 2011

Market-wide Futures OI (Expiry Day): Market-wide rollover 77%; Nifty rollovers 71% : Edelweiss

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Benchmark indices continued the good run for the eighth straight session with
Nifty gaining additional ~0.80% during the day. On the last day of expiry, ~77%
of the market wide futures open interest has been shifted to the April series which
is higher than ~74% seen in the February expiry. The April series will start with
market wide future OI of ~INR 452 bn as against ~INR 416 bn seen at the start
of the March expiry. The roll cost levels in stock futures was ~80-85bps (cost to
long rollers). In some of the counters it even expanded to levels of ~90bps.
Long roll aggression was the highlight of the expiry with roll cost in both stocks as
well as Nifty futures expanding throughout the expiry week. After starting the
week at ~21 points (cost to long roller), Nifty roll cost expanded to ~35-40 points
(cost to long roller) towards the end. Nifty April series would start with an OI of
~INR 152 bn (~INR 123 bn in March series) with 71% positions getting rolled into
the next series (~65% was seen in February expiry). At the start of the April
series, Nifty holds an OI of ~521K contracts. The March series had started with an
OI base of ~467k contracts. In today’s trading session ~109,504 contracts got
added in April series while ~217,818 contracts expired in March series.
Focus Sectors
Strong Rollovers: Sugar (91%) and Telecom (86%)
Weak Rollovers: Engineering (73%)
Focus Stocks
Strong Rollovers: JSW Steel (94%), HPCL (91%)
Weak Rollovers: ITC (59%), SAIL (64%)

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