04 April 2011

JP Morgan: Tata Motors - Mar'11 Sales: India sales growth moderates (+11% yoy) - LCV's drive volumes

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Tata Motors Overweight
TAMO.BO, TTMT IN
Mar'11 Sales: India sales growth moderates (+11%
yoy) - LCV's drive volumes


• India sales up +11% yoy: Tata Motors’ local sales (including exports) came in
at 83,363 vehicles over March. Growth was driven by the LCV segment (+23%
yoy), while M/HCV (+12% yoy) sales growth moderated. In FY11, the OEM
has reported a 25% growth in sales – sales have been driven by CV's and the
ramp up of the Nano.
• Heavy Commercial Vehicle sales moderate: The M&HCV sales at 24,972
units moderated (+12% yoy vs. 26% YTD). Sales growth has eased over the
past few months given a high base effect, the impact of pre buying as well as
lower sales of passenger buses (sales last year were aided by the JNNURM
scheme).
• LCV sales grow at 23% yoy - Tata Motors LCV sales at 30,386 units surprised
- the OEM expects robust growth in the ultra light truck segment over the next
few years driven by a growing road network in semi urban / rural India. The
company is expanding capacities by setting up a new plant at Dharwad in
southern India - which will come onstream in 3QFY12E.
• Passenger car sales decline (-4% yoy): The passenger segment reported sales
of 29,543 nos. (27,678 Tata + 1,865 Fiat) in the domestic market in March 2011,
compared to 29,867 nos. (27,760 Tata + 2,107 Fiat) yoy. Sales of the Nano came
in at 8,707 nos. (+85% yoy) while the Indica sales at 6,937 units declined -40%
yoy and the Indigo family sales of 7,197 units declined -5% yoy. Cumulative
sales of the Nano over FY11 are 70,432 units (+132% yoy). The company has
launched new variants in the passenger car segments to stem the declining trend.
• Exports are up +45% yoy: The company reported export sales of 5,932
vehicles in March 2011 driven by LCV’s. The cumulative sales from exports for
the fiscal are at 57,987 units (+70% yoy).
• Outlook: We re-iterate that while the sales outlook at JLR continues to be
healthy, growth rates in the domestic CV segment will moderate, given a
demanding base effect and moderating IIP growth.

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