IMD forecasts 2011 monsoon at 98% of LPA : Emkay

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IMD forecasts 2011 monsoon at 98% of LPA

Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) yesterday released its first forecast for southwest monsoon 2011 at 98% (872mm) of the long period average (LPA). LPA for southwest monsoon for India as whole is 890mm. The seasonal rainfall for southwest monsoon for 2010 was at 911mm.

IMD will issue its second stage forecast in June 2011 alongwith region-wise forecast for the season.

We believe even 98% forecast augurs well for India as historically even with deviation of at least at +6/-6%, the real agriculture GDP for India has been between 0-11%. However, much will also depend on the time of arrival (early or delayed) and the monsoon post the southwest monsoon season. A delayed monsoon alongwith good rainfall post-season may also help the rabi crop as was case in 2009.