Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Global - TECHNOLOGY
Still taking tablets
Survey of US consumers suggests healthy tablet/smartphone growth.
Bhavtosh Vajpayee, CFA (852) 26008388 bhavtosh.vajpayee@clsa.com
Our survey of US consumers shows a desire to buy smartphones and tablets at rates that support our high growth assumptions and we have raised our tablet-demand forecasts. Although the survey had both positive and negative data points for Apple, we expect it to grab a slightly larger share and we remain BUYers. But Research in Motion seems to be losing share and remains an Underperform. Elsewhere in gadget land, things are not so rosy. In Asia, we prefer large caps like TSMC and Hon Hai.
Apple raising tablet stakes. We are raising our 2011 worldwide tablet-demand forecasts from 49m to 51m (versus 17m in 2010). Overall tablet purchase intentions for the next 12 months support healthy adoption rates in the USA, the iPad 2 launch (a few days before we started our survey) was met with strong consumer enthusiasm, Research In Motion’s (RIMM US - US$57.05 - U-PF) guidance last week seems to imply a robust rate of sell-in demand, and Hewlett Packard (HPQ US - US$41.11 - O-PF) now has definite plans to launch its own tablet by midyear (supported by an intense "Everybody On" advertising campaign). Meanwhile, we learned last week at CTIA Wireless 2011 that Samsung Electronics (005930 KS - 916,000 won - O-PF) has delayed its US tablet launch by a few months so as to redesign its form factor to compete with iPad 2. For Apple (AAPL US - US$350.96 - BUY), we have raised our EPS estimates from US$22.75 to US$23.00 for FY11 and from US$25.95 to US$26.14 for FY12.
Evidence of first-mover advantage. Tablet ownership was at 11% in our most recent consumer survey, with Apple in the lead at 7.4% (including 1.2% who already owned iPad 2) followed by Android. However, the proportion intending to purchase an iPad declined slightly, from 12% of total respondents to 10%, while Android purchase intentions rose (from 3% to 5%) and Blackberry PlayBook purchase intentions halved (from 2% to 1%). Nevertheless, Apple still enjoys a twofold intent-to-purchase advantage over Android and a tenfold advantage over RIMM. The five most important attributes tied to making a tablet purchase (price, brand, screen size, ease of use and weight) seem to play into Apple’s favour with the launch of iPad 2, and the iTunes store was viewed more favourably than the Android store in our survey. Thus, despite the puts and takes from our survey, we have raised our iPad unit estimates for 2011 from 29.4m (60% market share) to 31m (61% share) to reflect the iPad 2 launch in the USA on 11 March and the international launch last Friday.
More evidence of Blackberry share loss. Among survey participants who own a smartphone, iPhone, Android and Blackberry now represent 31%, 38% and 26% of smartphone units respectively (versus 27%, 26% and 27% in our November survey). More importantly, the swing in smartphone purchasing intentions was most favourable for Android (11% of total respondents, versus 9% in the prior survey) and to a certain degree Apple's iPhone (12% versus 11%) at the expense of Blackberry (6% versus 9%), which jibes with the comScore data we recently highlighted as well as our concerns on the shares of RIM.
Independent checks and survey suggest upside. We leave our smartphone estimates unchanged for now. However, the consumer survey data and our independent checks suggest potential upside, based on solid purchase intentions by survey participants, upside from the legacy 3GS promotions at AT&T, solid Verizon sales and continued strong Asian demand through new and existing carriers
As for the rest of tech . . . While smartphones and tablets suck funds out of consumers’ wallets, the rest of the industry is not in the best of health. For 2011, consumer tech demand may grow by about 3% YoY in US-dollar terms, but excluding smartphones and tablets, gadget land could see a 5-6% YoY decline in value terms. The profit warnings from PC maker Acer (2353 TT - NT$63.1 - U-PF) and TV maker Philips need to be seen in this context. Our investment focus for Asian tech in 2011 remains large-cap heavy, with a smattering of mid caps thrown in. TSMC (2330 TT - NT$70.8 - O-PF), Hon Hai (2317 TT - NT$106.0 - BUY) and Tata Consultancy (TCS IB - Rs1139.3 - O-PF) rank among our top large-cap ideas, while WPG (3702 TT - NT$47.8 - BUY) is our preferred small-cap.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Global - TECHNOLOGY
Still taking tablets
Survey of US consumers suggests healthy tablet/smartphone growth.
Bhavtosh Vajpayee, CFA (852) 26008388 bhavtosh.vajpayee@clsa.com
Our survey of US consumers shows a desire to buy smartphones and tablets at rates that support our high growth assumptions and we have raised our tablet-demand forecasts. Although the survey had both positive and negative data points for Apple, we expect it to grab a slightly larger share and we remain BUYers. But Research in Motion seems to be losing share and remains an Underperform. Elsewhere in gadget land, things are not so rosy. In Asia, we prefer large caps like TSMC and Hon Hai.
Apple raising tablet stakes. We are raising our 2011 worldwide tablet-demand forecasts from 49m to 51m (versus 17m in 2010). Overall tablet purchase intentions for the next 12 months support healthy adoption rates in the USA, the iPad 2 launch (a few days before we started our survey) was met with strong consumer enthusiasm, Research In Motion’s (RIMM US - US$57.05 - U-PF) guidance last week seems to imply a robust rate of sell-in demand, and Hewlett Packard (HPQ US - US$41.11 - O-PF) now has definite plans to launch its own tablet by midyear (supported by an intense "Everybody On" advertising campaign). Meanwhile, we learned last week at CTIA Wireless 2011 that Samsung Electronics (005930 KS - 916,000 won - O-PF) has delayed its US tablet launch by a few months so as to redesign its form factor to compete with iPad 2. For Apple (AAPL US - US$350.96 - BUY), we have raised our EPS estimates from US$22.75 to US$23.00 for FY11 and from US$25.95 to US$26.14 for FY12.
Evidence of first-mover advantage. Tablet ownership was at 11% in our most recent consumer survey, with Apple in the lead at 7.4% (including 1.2% who already owned iPad 2) followed by Android. However, the proportion intending to purchase an iPad declined slightly, from 12% of total respondents to 10%, while Android purchase intentions rose (from 3% to 5%) and Blackberry PlayBook purchase intentions halved (from 2% to 1%). Nevertheless, Apple still enjoys a twofold intent-to-purchase advantage over Android and a tenfold advantage over RIMM. The five most important attributes tied to making a tablet purchase (price, brand, screen size, ease of use and weight) seem to play into Apple’s favour with the launch of iPad 2, and the iTunes store was viewed more favourably than the Android store in our survey. Thus, despite the puts and takes from our survey, we have raised our iPad unit estimates for 2011 from 29.4m (60% market share) to 31m (61% share) to reflect the iPad 2 launch in the USA on 11 March and the international launch last Friday.
More evidence of Blackberry share loss. Among survey participants who own a smartphone, iPhone, Android and Blackberry now represent 31%, 38% and 26% of smartphone units respectively (versus 27%, 26% and 27% in our November survey). More importantly, the swing in smartphone purchasing intentions was most favourable for Android (11% of total respondents, versus 9% in the prior survey) and to a certain degree Apple's iPhone (12% versus 11%) at the expense of Blackberry (6% versus 9%), which jibes with the comScore data we recently highlighted as well as our concerns on the shares of RIM.
Independent checks and survey suggest upside. We leave our smartphone estimates unchanged for now. However, the consumer survey data and our independent checks suggest potential upside, based on solid purchase intentions by survey participants, upside from the legacy 3GS promotions at AT&T, solid Verizon sales and continued strong Asian demand through new and existing carriers
As for the rest of tech . . . While smartphones and tablets suck funds out of consumers’ wallets, the rest of the industry is not in the best of health. For 2011, consumer tech demand may grow by about 3% YoY in US-dollar terms, but excluding smartphones and tablets, gadget land could see a 5-6% YoY decline in value terms. The profit warnings from PC maker Acer (2353 TT - NT$63.1 - U-PF) and TV maker Philips need to be seen in this context. Our investment focus for Asian tech in 2011 remains large-cap heavy, with a smattering of mid caps thrown in. TSMC (2330 TT - NT$70.8 - O-PF), Hon Hai (2317 TT - NT$106.0 - BUY) and Tata Consultancy (TCS IB - Rs1139.3 - O-PF) rank among our top large-cap ideas, while WPG (3702 TT - NT$47.8 - BUY) is our preferred small-cap.
No comments:
Post a Comment