01 April 2011

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) § April 1, 2011

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
§  Indian market is riding high on sentiment and upbeat social mood which is clearly reflected in the benchmark index that registered its record eighth consecutive session of win. Yesterday brought a close to the month of March, closing with a stellar gain on >9%. For the quarter though Nifty ended an eight quarter winning streak, by closing with a loss of ~5%. The quadruple witching day saw Nifty trade with high volatility throughout the day. Market breadth slipped marginally in favour of declining stocks; the Nifty 50 A/D ratio ended firm at 2:1. Technically the index has retraced ~61.8% of the Nov-Feb decline at 5895 in a short time, thus on overstretched intraday momentum, and heightened volatility, a cool-off is most likely in the coming days. The big picture has turned constructive where one should look to re-enter fresh longs on decline to 5700-5650.
§  IT shares led the gains from the start and remained the clear winners for yesterday. FMCG and Oil & Gas followed suit. Banking shares that have led the rally, took a breather after reaching key resistance levels. Healthcare and Cap Goods too dragged lower. BSE Midcap index has sustained the breakout of 6800 which will now propel it towards 7175.
§  Bullish Setups: RIL, Power Grid (PWGR), SESA, JP Assoc (JPA), Fortis (FORH)
§  Bearish Setups: Tech Mahindra (TECHM), Educomp (EDSL), MM
§  Commodities have flared up once again after taking a breather for few sessions. Crude is probing the recent high of $106.95, which should eventually give way to higher prices towards $120. Grain prices have shot up in yesterday’s session after underperforming for some time.

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