16 April 2011

Deutsche Bank:: PLNG: takeaways; TPWR: into E&C players; SUNP: Merck JV

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Petronet LNG Limited: Management call takeaways [Harshad Katkar]
Petronet LNG (PLNG)’s greenfield 5mmtpa LNG terminal at Kochi and its capacity
expansion at Dahej are on track for completion within the next 30 months. This
should increase its capacity from 10mmtpa currently to 15mmtpa in FY13 and
18mmtpa by FY14. To target the increasing domestic gas demand/supply deficit,
PLNG is evaluating further capacity expansion. We estimate PLNG’s EBITDA to
rise at a CAGR of 28% over FY10-14, driving its RoE from 19% in FY10 to 28% in
FY14. We are reiterating our Buy, with a INR150 target price.
Tata Power: Tata Power slowly moving into the big league of E&C players
[Manish Saxena]
Press reports (Business Standard) suggest that Tata Power's Strategic Electronics
Division (SED) - a part of the standalone entity - has signed the contract with the
Ministry of Defence worth INR 10.9bn to upgrade 30 airbases for Indian Air Force
(IAF). The duration of the contract would be 42 months. To recap, this contract
was challenged in the court by Italian giant Selex Sistemi Integrati, however the
Supreme Court rejected the petition which challenged the award questioning Tata
Power SED's technical capability to qualify for the contract.
Sun Pharma: JV with Merck to drive value in medium-long term [Abhay
Shanbhag]
JV will capitalize on Sun’s rapid, innovative product development using Sun
Pharma Advanced Research (SPARC, which was demerged from Sun’s proprietary
platform technologies) and Sun’s manufacturing network with Merck's clinical
development and registration expertise, brand equity and a broad, geographic
commercial footprint. The JV seems more of a holding company using the
infrastructure of each of the partners (Sun, SPARC or Merck) and managed by a
Joint Board and team, consisting of members from both companies.
Sesa Goa: Chinese iron ore imports touch new quarterly high [Anuj Singla]
China’s iron ore imports touched a quarterly record of 177 million tonnes in
1Q'CY11, as per the preliminary Chinese customs data. Iron ore imports by China
for 1Q'CY11 are up 14.4% YoY, mirroring the trend in Chinese steel production
which is up 12% YoY (Jan-Feb). Sesa will continue to benefit from the iron ore
spot price momentum as well as improved volumes on account of the resolution
of Karnataka iron ore export ban. Sesa's iron ore business is available at 3.8x FY12
EV/EBITDA, at a 20% discount to the global peers. Maintain Buy with a Target
price of INR360/share.
Asia Economics Special: India: Feb IP growth on the weak side, likely to
bottom soon [Taimur Baig]
Industrial production rose by 3.6%yoy in February, lower than our and market
expectations of 5.0%yoy. The January number was revised up marginally to 3.9%,
from 3.7% earlier. On a seasonally adjusted basis, February IP declined by
0.5%mom (+3.5%yoy), reversing from a 1.4%mom rise in January.
India Equity Strategy: Rural prosperity set to continue [Abhay Laijawala]
According to the Government of India’s recently released third advance estimates,
India’s food grain production is likely to touch a new record in FY11, rising by an
estimated 8% to 236mn tonnes. Production of wheat, pulses, oilseeds and cotton
is expected to touch a record high in FY11. Increasing production of food grains
remains critical to India where rising rural prosperity (particularly at the bottom of
the pyramid) has resulted in surging demand for food grains.

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