11 April 2011

Add NTPC ; Provisional results in line…Target : | 202:: ICICI Securities

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Provisional results in line………
NTPC has declared its provisional numbers for FY11. The revenues of
witnessed a growth of 16.63% YoY from | 46169 crore to | 53721
crore while profit after tax grew by 1.1%% YoY from | 8,728 crore to |
8,826 crore. The company has added 2,490 MW of generation capacity
in FY11. In Q4 FY11, company added 1,000 MW of capacity. NTPC has
an installed capacity of 34,194 MW including 3,364 MW of capacities
under JVs. The company is expecting to add another 4,320 MW in
FY12E. For Q4 FY11, the company reported net sales of | 14,488 crore
and PAT of | 2505.42 crore
Highlights during FY11
• Generation for year FY11 was flat at 220.4 BU’s (growth of 0.79%
YoY). In Q4FY11, NTPC has commercialised1000 MW of new
capacity. Also, for FY12E its plans to generate 235 BU’s of
electricity, implying 6.8% YoY growth.
• In FY11, capacity addition stands at 2490 MW (against original
target of 4150 MW)
• For FY12, the company expects capacity addition 4320 MW.
However, we expect capacity addition of ~ 3820 MW
• PLF for year stood at 88.29%.PAF (Plant availability factor ) for
coal based stations stood at 91.6 in FY11 ( 91.4% in FY10) while
for gas based stations stood at 92.6% ( 90.6% in FY10)
• NTPC has incurred ~| 12, 817 crore as capex in FY11 and plans to
incur incremental capex of | 26400 crore.
Valuation
At the CMP of | 191, the stock is trading at 16.6x and 15.7x its FY12E and
FY13E EPS, respectively. Due to capacity slippage in FY11, moderate
ramp up in FY12 and grossing up of ROE on MAT, we maintain our target
price and change the rating from Buy to Add (due to the recent run up in
the price). At our target price of | 202, NTPC trades at 2x its book value of
FY12E. We would revisit our estimates post actual results for FY11 is
declared.

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