05 March 2011

Weekly Marcket Update : Markets give thumbs up to Union Budget: ICICI Sec

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Previous Week : Markets gave thumbs up to the Union Budget 2011-12
 
 
The previous week provided the required relief to the markets. In a shortened trading week, the markets closed in the green in three out of four trading days of the week. The markets reacted positively to the Union Budget 2011-12. On a week on week basis, the Sensex was up by 732 points or 4.1%, to close at 18486. The S&P CNX Nifty also closed in the green by 235 points, or 4.4%, to close at 5538 for the week.
The Budget 2011-12 was a balanced Budget contrary to
expectations of a populist one
The fiscal deficit target of 4.6% for 2011-12 vs the FRBM target of
4.5% seems pretty encouraging given the high commodity prices
Auto, Banking and Capital Goods stocks bounced smartly from the
lows, with stocks such as L&T, State Bank, Tata Motors, Axis Bank, and Maruti amongst the major gainers
Food inflation fell to 10.39% for the week ending February 19, 2011
 
mainly due to declining prices of fruits and vegetables, eggs and cereals etc
The US economy continued to show improvement. US GDP
increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the fourth quarter. It was downwardly revised from the previous estimate of 3.2% growth. Despite the downward revision, the GDP number still indicated the sixth consecutive quarter of growth for the US economy
Consumer spending rose 4.1% in the last three months of 2010 as
against earlier projection of 4.4% 
 
WeeAhead : Nifty is likely to find support around 5450-5400 range
 
 
Nifty has bounced back smartly from the support levels, and has managed to close above the 20 days SMA which is placed at 5410 level. During the month of February so far foreign institutional investors (FIIs) outflow in the calendar year 2011 totalled 9,000 crores (till March 1, 2011). They had offloaded equities worth 4,585 crores in February 2011 and 4,813 crores in January 2011 after buying equities worth 1,33,266 crores in the calendar year 2010.
Among the key global data to watch for in next week is Jobless claim
data, EIA Natural Gas report, EIA Petroleum status report, etc
For the coming week, Nifty is likely to find support around 5450-5400
range where it has support from 20 days SMA
Breaching below 20 days SMA will open further downside and can
test last week low of 5308
On the higher side, 5610 is the immediate resistance from the 200
days EMA (Exponential moving Average) sustaining above which on a closing basis can see the index testing 5720

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