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Weekly US oil data
More constructive data
As if oil markets need more bullish input, much of this morning's weekly US data
expands what was already a strengthening fundamentals story. To a degree, what is
happening in the US in the next month or two is a leading indicator of what typically
happens around the world: Refiners first reduce throughput as many take down units
for seasonal maintenance and when plants later come back online, global refiner
feedstock demand rises from trough to peak by some 4 million barrels per day.
Trouble in MENA persists
So as the instability of scores of political pyramids across MENA focuses oil markets
on supply risk, current disruptions come at a good time while global refiner demand
is at its seasonally lowest level. What worries us are future disruptions emanating
from the possibility of further political change in say, Algeria, Oman or Yemen,
and/or anxiety about looming leadership shuffles and perhaps generational change
at the top of the Saudi power-structure.
As we printed before, we see a real and growing risk of oil markets beginning to
price for scarcity in the next few months.
Please see our recent research, Libya: Act 1 for oil supplies, 22 March 2011 (LINK),
for additional detail.
Top three numbers in today’s weekly US oil data
Crude oil inventories shed -0.4 mbs – lower imports (-1% or -96kb/d)
contributed to a -3.7mbs draw on the Gulf Coast. Stocks at Cushing, OK added
+1.1mbs to reach a new record.
Downstream stocks fell sharply, again, as total products drew -6.2mbs. The
primary drivers behind the stock change were gasoline, heating oil, and other
products (stocks dropped -3.6mbs, -1.2mbs, and -1.8mbs, respectively).
Demand growth retreated moderately to +1.4% (four week MA, y/y), as a
marginal improvement in demand for transport fuels was unable to offset a larger
decline in that for stationary fuels.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Weekly US oil data
More constructive data
As if oil markets need more bullish input, much of this morning's weekly US data
expands what was already a strengthening fundamentals story. To a degree, what is
happening in the US in the next month or two is a leading indicator of what typically
happens around the world: Refiners first reduce throughput as many take down units
for seasonal maintenance and when plants later come back online, global refiner
feedstock demand rises from trough to peak by some 4 million barrels per day.
Trouble in MENA persists
So as the instability of scores of political pyramids across MENA focuses oil markets
on supply risk, current disruptions come at a good time while global refiner demand
is at its seasonally lowest level. What worries us are future disruptions emanating
from the possibility of further political change in say, Algeria, Oman or Yemen,
and/or anxiety about looming leadership shuffles and perhaps generational change
at the top of the Saudi power-structure.
As we printed before, we see a real and growing risk of oil markets beginning to
price for scarcity in the next few months.
Please see our recent research, Libya: Act 1 for oil supplies, 22 March 2011 (LINK),
for additional detail.
Top three numbers in today’s weekly US oil data
Crude oil inventories shed -0.4 mbs – lower imports (-1% or -96kb/d)
contributed to a -3.7mbs draw on the Gulf Coast. Stocks at Cushing, OK added
+1.1mbs to reach a new record.
Downstream stocks fell sharply, again, as total products drew -6.2mbs. The
primary drivers behind the stock change were gasoline, heating oil, and other
products (stocks dropped -3.6mbs, -1.2mbs, and -1.8mbs, respectively).
Demand growth retreated moderately to +1.4% (four week MA, y/y), as a
marginal improvement in demand for transport fuels was unable to offset a larger
decline in that for stationary fuels.
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