13 March 2011

Macquarie Research, US oil data -Adding more fuel to the blazing oil fire

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Weekly US oil data
Adding more fuel to the blazing oil fire
The latest DOE numbers are again mostly constructive. While the headline
crude oil inventory build may be seen as a bearish surprise, the underlying
trends are decidedly not. Indeed, the four-week rolling average for crude oil
imports fells further to 8.15million barrels per day, the lowest count for this time
of the year since 2003 – when the world was struggling with supply disruptions
from Venezuela and Nigeria, and a US-led coalition was about to invade Iraq.
What’s more, downstream data points look more and more encouraging as well.
Large inventory draws for the principal products extend the declines in
downstream inventory to four weeks (over which time levels have fallen by
nearly -40mbs), pulled along by steady, if not spectacular, demand growth.

Libya and Gaddafi: WINNING?
Somewhat ironically, of course, this constructive picture in the US adds to
worries about global oil balances tightening. We have emphasized repeatedly
that seasonal factors will drive crude oil demand from refiners materially higher
from now through this summer. And evidently, the supply disruption from Libya
is getting worse as Gaddafi’s troops appear to be making progress. Worse,
Libya’s opposition groups appear unable to unify on a political level, yet seem
strong enough to prevent an outright Gaddafi victory soon. The conflict seems
unlikely to resolve itself as soon as markets had hoped.
Top three numbers in today’s weekly US oil data
 Crude oil inventories add 2.5mbs – higher imports (+4% or +290kb/d)
contributed to a +3.6mbs build on the Gulf Coast. Stocks at Cushing, OK
added +1.7mbs to reach a new record.
 Downstream stocks fell sharply, again, as total products drew -8.8mbs.
The primary drivers behind the stock change were gasoline and middle
distillates.
 Demand growth retreated slightly to +1.3% (four week MA, y/y), as a sharp
rebound in demand for transport fuels was unable to offset a larger decline in
that for stationary fuels.

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