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Coal India Limited: Moving a utility model to a commodity model; Buy
[Manish Saxena]
We recently raised our estimates by 26% and 6% for FY12 and FY13, respectively,
following a c. 16% blended price hike, 13 months ahead of expectations. We think
the price hike was taken to partially offset the negative impact of reduced volume
growth guidance and potential increase in cost base as volume growth suffers.
However, the changed methodology of price fixation makes 30% of CIL’s volumes
(earlier 15%) now linked to international prices.
Tata Motors Ltd: Feb-11 volumes: strong domestic nos; maintain as top pick
[Srinivas Rao]
Tata Motors’ domestic medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) volume
growth has been trending down as expected. Domestic MHCV volumes in
February 2011 came at 17,632 (+1% YoY) and domestic light CV volumes were
23,498 (8% YoY). We forecast domestic MHCV volumes to grow at
23%/12%/10% in FY11E/12E/13E. LCV volumes are forecast to grow at
15%/10%/10% in FY11E/12E/13E.
Bajaj Auto Limited: Feb-11 volumes: strong nos in both 2W and 3W [Srinivas
Rao]
Bajaj’s Feb-2011 volumes continue to be robust in both the two-wheeler (2W) and
three-wheeler (3W) segments. YTD, 2W volumes at 3.11mn (38% YoY) are running
a tad lower than the management guidance of 3.6mn for FY11E whereas 3W
volumes (0.4mn, 29.5% YoY) are poised to surpass FY11E guidance of 0.4mn. We
maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 1650.
Mahindra & Mahindra: Feb-11: strong tractor volumes, UVs lag
M&M's February 2011 tractor volumes (18,134, 38% YoY) continue to be strong
whereas the growth in utility vehicles (14,288, 12% YoY) continues to lag our
expectations. Management commentary continues to indicate that they are facing
component shortages in UVs and are unable to meet the demand.
Maruti Suzuki Limited: Feb-11 volumes: strong as expected; maintain Hold
[Srinivas Rao]
Maruti's February 2011 volumes at 111,620 units (+15% YoY) continue to be
robust. We note that the company has been averaging a monthly run-rate of 110K
over the last six months since they de-bottlenecked their capacity. YTD volume
growth at 25% is in line with our FY11E growth estimate of 23%.
Shriram Transport Finance: Automall to help in consolidating Shriram’s
positioning [Manish Shukla]
We attended the inauguration of the first Shriram Automall near Chennai recently.
Automall is a wholly owned subsidiary of Shriram Transport Finance ( STFC ). STFC
plans to open three more Automalls by end-March 2011 and then add 50-60
automalls over the next 2-3 years. Automall will start contributing to fee income
soon, but will achieve scale only by FY13.
TVS Motor: Feb-11 volumes: strong numbers; maintain Buy [Amyn Pirani]
TVS’s Feb-2011 volumes continue to be strong in both the two-wheeler (2W) and
three-wheeler (3W) segments. Its YTD 3W volumes stand at 35,502 (+183% YoY),
having risen at a pace well ahead of our full-year FY11 forecast of 37,790.
Asia Economics Daily: Export growth slows while inflation eases,
temporarily
Exports remained robust in January, rising 32.4%yoy in January, stronger than our
forecast of 30%, but modestly weaker than the 36.4% growth reported in
December.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Coal India Limited: Moving a utility model to a commodity model; Buy
[Manish Saxena]
We recently raised our estimates by 26% and 6% for FY12 and FY13, respectively,
following a c. 16% blended price hike, 13 months ahead of expectations. We think
the price hike was taken to partially offset the negative impact of reduced volume
growth guidance and potential increase in cost base as volume growth suffers.
However, the changed methodology of price fixation makes 30% of CIL’s volumes
(earlier 15%) now linked to international prices.
Tata Motors Ltd: Feb-11 volumes: strong domestic nos; maintain as top pick
[Srinivas Rao]
Tata Motors’ domestic medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) volume
growth has been trending down as expected. Domestic MHCV volumes in
February 2011 came at 17,632 (+1% YoY) and domestic light CV volumes were
23,498 (8% YoY). We forecast domestic MHCV volumes to grow at
23%/12%/10% in FY11E/12E/13E. LCV volumes are forecast to grow at
15%/10%/10% in FY11E/12E/13E.
Bajaj Auto Limited: Feb-11 volumes: strong nos in both 2W and 3W [Srinivas
Rao]
Bajaj’s Feb-2011 volumes continue to be robust in both the two-wheeler (2W) and
three-wheeler (3W) segments. YTD, 2W volumes at 3.11mn (38% YoY) are running
a tad lower than the management guidance of 3.6mn for FY11E whereas 3W
volumes (0.4mn, 29.5% YoY) are poised to surpass FY11E guidance of 0.4mn. We
maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 1650.
Mahindra & Mahindra: Feb-11: strong tractor volumes, UVs lag
M&M's February 2011 tractor volumes (18,134, 38% YoY) continue to be strong
whereas the growth in utility vehicles (14,288, 12% YoY) continues to lag our
expectations. Management commentary continues to indicate that they are facing
component shortages in UVs and are unable to meet the demand.
Maruti Suzuki Limited: Feb-11 volumes: strong as expected; maintain Hold
[Srinivas Rao]
Maruti's February 2011 volumes at 111,620 units (+15% YoY) continue to be
robust. We note that the company has been averaging a monthly run-rate of 110K
over the last six months since they de-bottlenecked their capacity. YTD volume
growth at 25% is in line with our FY11E growth estimate of 23%.
Shriram Transport Finance: Automall to help in consolidating Shriram’s
positioning [Manish Shukla]
We attended the inauguration of the first Shriram Automall near Chennai recently.
Automall is a wholly owned subsidiary of Shriram Transport Finance ( STFC ). STFC
plans to open three more Automalls by end-March 2011 and then add 50-60
automalls over the next 2-3 years. Automall will start contributing to fee income
soon, but will achieve scale only by FY13.
TVS Motor: Feb-11 volumes: strong numbers; maintain Buy [Amyn Pirani]
TVS’s Feb-2011 volumes continue to be strong in both the two-wheeler (2W) and
three-wheeler (3W) segments. Its YTD 3W volumes stand at 35,502 (+183% YoY),
having risen at a pace well ahead of our full-year FY11 forecast of 37,790.
Asia Economics Daily: Export growth slows while inflation eases,
temporarily
Exports remained robust in January, rising 32.4%yoy in January, stronger than our
forecast of 30%, but modestly weaker than the 36.4% growth reported in
December.
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