15 February 2011

UBS: US gasoline inventories reach 20-year high

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UBS Investment Research
Asia Oil Explorer
US gasoline inventories reach 20-year high
􀂄 WTI crude prices fall on strong dollar
WTI crude oil prices fell 3.9%, ending last week at US$85.6/bbl, while Brent
prices rose 0.8%, ending last week at US$100.4/bbl. Easing concerns on a potential
disruption of oil supply from Suez Canal and a strong US dollar contributed to the
decline in WTI. According to the US Department of Energy (DOE) for the week
ended 04 February, crude inventories rose 1.9mbbls to 345.1mbbls versus Reuters’
consensus of a 2.4mbbls build. Gasoline inventories touched a 20-year high, rising
by 4.7mbbls to 240.9mbbls, their highest level since March 1990.

􀂄 Refining margins remain flat WoW
The Reuters Singapore complex refining margin index averaged US$6.8/bbl last
week, up from US$6.7/bbl the previous week. Fuel oil and diesel spreads versus
Dubai were up US$1.4/bbl and US$0.6/bbl, respectively, WoW. However,
gasoline spread fell US$2.2/bbl WoW. Ethylene and benzene spreads (to naphtha)
rose 6.5% and 10.1% to close at US$444/t and US$322/t, respectively.
􀂄 E&P stocks have outperformed in the past month
For the month ended 11 February and based on simple average performance, E&P
stocks in Asia under UBS coverage fell 0.8%, while, on an average, refining and
integrated stocks fell 1.3% and 1.9%, respectively.
􀂄 Top picks
Our most preferred stocks in Asia are COSL, SinoTech, Essar Oil, Thai Oil, and SOil.

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