15 February 2011

UBS: Tata Power 3Q FY11: Good quarter

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UBS Investment Research
Tata Power
3Q FY11: Good quarter
􀂄 3Q FY11: Consolidated Sales down 2% YoY, PAT up 412% YoY
In 3Q FY11, Tata Power’s consolidated sales fell 2% YoY to Rs44.4bn. The
reported PAT at Rs4.42bn is up 378% YoY. However, adjusted for forex gain of
Rs321m the recurring PAT is Rs4.1bn, up 412% YoY (+3% QoQ). In 9M FY11,
the recurring PAT is up 78% YoY to Rs12.7bn.

􀂄 In 3Q FY11, Coal contributes 37% of revenues and 52% of PBIT
The segmental results indicate revenue growth in coal (17% YoY to Rs16.7bn) and
revenue in the power segment declined 10% YoY to Rs26.1bn. The profit from
power has also decreased 22% YoY. Contribution from coal in overall profitability
is 52% in 3Q FY11. The coal business production was down by 1mt to 17.5mt in
the quarter but realisation was up 24% YoY to $73 per tonne and the cash cost for
the quarter was $37 per tonne.
􀂄 Conference call: Key highlights
Tata Power organised a conference call today evening. The key takeaways from
the call are; a) Mundra is 71% complete and Maithon 92%, b) Merchant tariffs
declined in 3Q in-line with sector (Haldia plant realisation was Rs3 per unit and
Mumbai plant realisation was Rs5 per unit), and c) Land acquisition of 460 acres is
complete (Total pvt req 900 acres) for Dehrand.
􀂄 Valuation: Maintain Buy and PT of Rs1,600
Our SOTP based PT is contributed by, 1) Power (62%), 2) Stake in Bumi mines
(23%), 3) Investments (15%, after 20% conglomerate discount).


Tata Power – 3Q FY11 Consolidated results
In 3Q FY11, Tata Power’s consolidated sales fell 2% YoY to Rs44.4bn. The
reported PAT at Rs4.42bn is up 378% YoY. However, adjusted for forex gain of
Rs321m the recurring PAT is Rs4.1bn, up 412% YoY+3% QoQ). In 9M FY11,
the recurring PAT is up 78% YoY to Rs12.7bn.


Segmental results
The segmental results indicate revenue growth in coal (17% YoY to Rs16.7bn)
and revenue in the power segment declined 10% YoY to Rs26.1bn. The profit
from power has also decreased 22% YoY. Contribution from coal in overall
profitability is 52% in 3Q FY11. The coal business production was down by 1mt
to 17.5mt in the quarter but realisation was up 24% YoY to $73 per tonne and
the cash cost for the quarter was $37 per tonne.


􀁑 Tata Power
Tata Power (TPC) is an integrated utility, primarily engaged in the generation,
transmission, supply and distribution of electricity in India. As the largest
private sector generator in India by capacity, it owns an aggregate capacity of
2,379MW in the states of Maharashtra (1,870 MW), Jharkhand (428 MW) and
Karnataka (81 MW). TPC holds a 49% stake in a distribution company in Delhi,
North Delhi Power Limited (NDPL). It also has a 51% stake in Power Links, the
first public-private partnership for a transmission line. The company is
developing a 4,000MW power plant in Mundra, Gujarat.
􀁑 Statement of Risk
The main risks to our valuation and price target are: 1) coal prices; 2) execution
delays; 3) currency as both coal imports and their tariffs for Mundra are linked
to the dollar/rupee rate; and 4) regulatory, as its business is spread across
multiple states.





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