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UBS Investment Research
NTPC
Q3 FY11: Below expectations results
„ Recurring PAT marginally up YoY
In Q3FY11, NTPC’s operating income from electricity sales grew 20% YoY to
Rs134.2bn and reported PAT was flat YoY Rs23.72bn. There are some exceptional
items such as depreciation written back (Rs752m), provisions (Rs54m), prior
period sales (Rs1.6bn) and forex loss (Rs357m). Adjusted for these, the recurring
PAT is up 4% YoY to Rs21.8bn. The results are below expectations.
„ Bulk tendering Phase I to be completed in FY11
According to media reports, NTPC has also finalised the technically qualified bids
for the boiler part of the 11*660MW bulk tender. At this stage, BHEL and two
other consortiums (L&T-MHI and BGR Energy-Hitachi) are in the running. The
company has already started work on Phase 2 of bulk tendering (nine units of
800MW each). Please refer to our note on BHEL, Q3 FY11 results: we expect
strong quarter results dated 13th January 2011.
„ Analyst call on 1st February at 4pm IST
NTPC has scheduled an investor and analyst conference call on Tuesday, 1stFebruary at 4pm IST. We expect to get more details during the call. However, we
understand that the near-term focus for the company is aggressive capacity
addition. The company intends to add another 25,000MW in next five years and
overall, it plans to become a 75,000MW generation utility by 2017.
„ Valuation: Maintain Neutral
We retain our DCF-based price target of Rs230. We view NTPC as a good
defensive stock.
Q National Thermal Power Corporation Ltd.
National Thermal Power Corp (NTPC) is the largest power generator in India,
accounting for 19% of installed capacity and 28.5% of generation as on 31
March 2008. Of the company's installed capacity, 86% is coal based and 14% is
gas based. It aims to double its generating capacity by 2015. It is integrating
backwards into coal mining, LNG imports, and forward into the transmission
and distribution sector.
Q Statement of Risk
We believe the key risk to our rating and price target is faster-than-expected
execution.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
UBS Investment Research
NTPC
Q3 FY11: Below expectations results
„ Recurring PAT marginally up YoY
In Q3FY11, NTPC’s operating income from electricity sales grew 20% YoY to
Rs134.2bn and reported PAT was flat YoY Rs23.72bn. There are some exceptional
items such as depreciation written back (Rs752m), provisions (Rs54m), prior
period sales (Rs1.6bn) and forex loss (Rs357m). Adjusted for these, the recurring
PAT is up 4% YoY to Rs21.8bn. The results are below expectations.
„ Bulk tendering Phase I to be completed in FY11
According to media reports, NTPC has also finalised the technically qualified bids
for the boiler part of the 11*660MW bulk tender. At this stage, BHEL and two
other consortiums (L&T-MHI and BGR Energy-Hitachi) are in the running. The
company has already started work on Phase 2 of bulk tendering (nine units of
800MW each). Please refer to our note on BHEL, Q3 FY11 results: we expect
strong quarter results dated 13th January 2011.
„ Analyst call on 1st February at 4pm IST
NTPC has scheduled an investor and analyst conference call on Tuesday, 1stFebruary at 4pm IST. We expect to get more details during the call. However, we
understand that the near-term focus for the company is aggressive capacity
addition. The company intends to add another 25,000MW in next five years and
overall, it plans to become a 75,000MW generation utility by 2017.
„ Valuation: Maintain Neutral
We retain our DCF-based price target of Rs230. We view NTPC as a good
defensive stock.
Q National Thermal Power Corporation Ltd.
National Thermal Power Corp (NTPC) is the largest power generator in India,
accounting for 19% of installed capacity and 28.5% of generation as on 31
March 2008. Of the company's installed capacity, 86% is coal based and 14% is
gas based. It aims to double its generating capacity by 2015. It is integrating
backwards into coal mining, LNG imports, and forward into the transmission
and distribution sector.
Q Statement of Risk
We believe the key risk to our rating and price target is faster-than-expected
execution.
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