22 February 2011

ROLLOVER ANALYSIS: Market-wide OI (D-3 Days): Market-wide roll 28%; Nifty roll 25% : Edelweiss

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After lying low for a major part of the day, the benchmark indices staged stellar
recovery towards the latter half. At the end of D-3 day, on the market wide front,
~28% of the positions have been rolled over to the March series as compared to
~22% positions seen on the D-3 of the January expiry. Market wide futures OI
currently stands at ~INR 571 bn (~INR 569 bn on D-3 of last expiry). Roll cost
(cost to long rollers) levels in stock futures was ~70-75 bps during the day.

On the Nifty front, the OI currently stands at ~INR 173bn (~INR 149 bn on D-3 of
the last expiry). Since the beginning of the expiry, the Nifty OI (contracts) has
risen by ~55%. Around 25% of the total Nifty positions have been moved into the
March series till date as compared to 17% on D-3 of January expiry. Nifty roll cost
for the long rollers which was at ~20-21 points at the start of the day came down
to ~18-19 points towards the end. Around 30,139 Nifty contracts got rolled, while
~3,062 contracts were added in the near month.


Among the sectors, power, construction and engineering stocks have witnessed good rollovers. Rollover in power and
construction stands at ~36% and ~35% respectively. Counters with prominent rollovers are NTPC (~52%), DLF
(~50%) and Dr Reddy’s Labs (~49%). Rollovers have been relatively weak in auto (~23%).


Focus Stock
􀂄 NTPC (NATP): The stock witnessed ~52% of its positions getting rolled into the next series. The rollovers are
in line with D-3 of the January expiry. The OI in the counter is ~16.86mn shares and the rolls were happening
at a profit of ~60-65bps in today’s session.
􀂄 DLF (DLFU): Around 50% of the total positions have been rolled into the March series, which is higher as
compared to D-3 of the previous expiry (~24%). The counter holds an OI of ~24.3mn shares. Short side
aggression was clearly evident as the rolls were happening at a loss of ~85-90 bps.
􀂄 Dr Reddy’s Labs (DRRD): Nearly 49% of the positions have got rolled into the March series, as compared to
~38% rolls witnessed on D-3 of the previous expiry. The stock holds an open interest of ~1.2mn shares. The
counter was rolling at a profit of ~30-35bps way below the market wide roll cost levels of ~70-75 bps.

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