26 February 2011

ROLLOVER ANALYSIS: Market-wide Futures OI (Expiry Day): Market-wide rollover 74%; Nifty rollovers 65%: Edelweiss

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Market-wide Futures OI (Expiry Day): Market-wide rollover 74%; Nifty rollovers 65%


Weighed down by the broad based selling, the benchmark index Nifty lost
~3.20% over the previous day. On the last day of expiry, ~74% of the market
wide futures open interest has been shifted to the March expiry which is less than
~77% seen in the January expiry. The March series will start with market wide
future OI of ~INR 416 bn as against ~INR 456 bn seen at the start of the
February expiry. The market wide futures OI is the second lowest since last year’s
February expiry (~INR 386 bn). Despite of the massive sell off, the roll cost levels
in stock futures expanded to ~75-80bps.
For a major part of the expiry week short rollers appeared to be aggressive. After
starting the day at ~9 points, Nifty roll cost expanded to ~22-25 points towards
the end. This can be attributed to the aggression from the long rollers today who
till yesterday were waiting for better levels. Nifty March series would start with an
OI of ~INR 123 bn (~INR 113 bn in February series) with 65% positions getting
rolled into the next series (~67% was seen in January expiry). Nifty series holds
an OI of ~467K contracts. The February series had started with a low OI base of
~400k contracts. Duirng the course of the month, the OI went up till ~623k
contracts (an increase of ~56%). In today’s trading session ~170,025 contracts
got added in March series while ~47,804 contracts expired in February series.
Focus Sectors
Strong Rollovers: Sugar (87%) and Telecom (85%)
Weak Rollovers: Engineering (75%)
Focus Stocks
Strong Rollovers: Videocon Industries (93%), Aurobindo Pharma (92%)
Weak Rollovers: National Aluminum (45%), ITC (65%)

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