09 February 2011

RBS: Buy Power Grid - Results in line with expectations; TP of Rs118.

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Power Grid reported Q3 numbers in line with estimates. Capital employed is up 15% sequentially
indicating ongoing capex. We expect project execution and asset capitalisation, both key to
earnings, to pick over next couple of years. We continue to like the stock as a defensive in the
transmission space. Maintain Buy.

Results in line with estimates
􀀟 Power Grid reported 3Q11 revenues of Rs20.5bn (up 34.5% yoy) in line with our estimate of
Rs 20bn. Revenue from the core transmission sector came in at Rs20.1bn (up 28% yoy).
􀀟 EBITDA for the quarter was reported at Rs17.3bn (up 38.6% yoy) 5% ahead with our
estimates of Rs16.5bn due to lower than estimated other expenses.
􀀟 Adjusted PAT for the quarter was reported at Rs5.9bn (up 21.2% yoy) vs. our estimate of
Rs5.8bn.
􀀟 There is a 15% qoq jump in capital employed in the transmission segment indicating ongoing
capex in the company
Asset capitalisation remains key
􀀟 During FY10, the company incurred capex of Rs101bn; however, the projects commissioned
during the year stood at c.Rs36bn.
􀀟 However at the end of the previous quarter, the company has been able to capitalise assets
worth c.Rs50bn.
􀀟 We expect capitalisation of ~ Rs80bn in FY11 and ~Rs100bn in FY12 on back of capex of
Rs115bn in FY11 and Rs142bn in FY12.
Defensive play on transmission spend
􀀟 The company remains a defensive play on the transmission spends in the country. We
continue to favour the stock as the regulated returns give it a steady, non-volatile growth
profile.
􀀟 The stock trades at 2.3x FY11F on price to book. We maintain Buy with a TP of Rs118.

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