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Autos
January Sales: Mixed Bag
Quick Comment – mixed bag, growth slows down in
CVs: Growth remained strong in the domestic
passenger car and tractor segments for the month. MSIL
domestic volumes were up 24% YoY and M&M volumes
up 22% YoY. On the commercial vehicle side for Tata
Motors, MHCV sales were subdued with mere 5% YoY
growth but LCVs were strong with 17% YoY growth. In
the domestic two-wheeler space, HH and TVS Motor
posted 20% and 29% gains YoY.
Positive surprises: M&M’s tractor growth; on a FYD11
basis tractors are up 21% YoY.
Negative surprises: CV growth of 12% for Tata Motors
was below our expectations.
Tata Motors: Cars ex Nano were flat YoY as Indica
volumes were down 8% YoY. Reflecting aggressive
promotional/financing schemes launched for the Nano,
volumes have recovered to 6,703 units, up 68% YoY.
Our FY11 estimates imply 12% growth for the remaining
months and we believe that should be achievable – thus
we don’t see earnings downside. Based on our F12e
earnings, the current price implies 6.5x EV/EBITDA for
India and 4x EV/EBITDA for JLR (Exhibit 6). Both
multiples look attractive compared to historical ranges,
and we remain OW.
Mahindra: Tractor growth above expectations, up
21% YoY, Autos up 22% YoY. M&M’s automotive
segment, up 22% YoY,was in line with our expectations
(UVs up 17%, lite trucks up 28% and three wheelers up
37%). M&M launched the Genio, a 1.2T pickup truck, in
January and plans to launch 8-10 new products by
March 2012 to sustain volumes in the coming fiscal year.
M&M continues to impress in its core tractor portfolio,
remain OW.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Autos
January Sales: Mixed Bag
Quick Comment – mixed bag, growth slows down in
CVs: Growth remained strong in the domestic
passenger car and tractor segments for the month. MSIL
domestic volumes were up 24% YoY and M&M volumes
up 22% YoY. On the commercial vehicle side for Tata
Motors, MHCV sales were subdued with mere 5% YoY
growth but LCVs were strong with 17% YoY growth. In
the domestic two-wheeler space, HH and TVS Motor
posted 20% and 29% gains YoY.
Positive surprises: M&M’s tractor growth; on a FYD11
basis tractors are up 21% YoY.
Negative surprises: CV growth of 12% for Tata Motors
was below our expectations.
Tata Motors: Cars ex Nano were flat YoY as Indica
volumes were down 8% YoY. Reflecting aggressive
promotional/financing schemes launched for the Nano,
volumes have recovered to 6,703 units, up 68% YoY.
Our FY11 estimates imply 12% growth for the remaining
months and we believe that should be achievable – thus
we don’t see earnings downside. Based on our F12e
earnings, the current price implies 6.5x EV/EBITDA for
India and 4x EV/EBITDA for JLR (Exhibit 6). Both
multiples look attractive compared to historical ranges,
and we remain OW.
Mahindra: Tractor growth above expectations, up
21% YoY, Autos up 22% YoY. M&M’s automotive
segment, up 22% YoY,was in line with our expectations
(UVs up 17%, lite trucks up 28% and three wheelers up
37%). M&M launched the Genio, a 1.2T pickup truck, in
January and plans to launch 8-10 new products by
March 2012 to sustain volumes in the coming fiscal year.
M&M continues to impress in its core tractor portfolio,
remain OW.
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