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Weekly US oil data
Constructive US s/d numbers
Following several batches of seasonally weak US crude oil data, this week finally
turns a bit more constructive. Demand growth rebounded following nearly a month at
suppressed levels. And these mildly supportive fundamentals come as crude is
already pushing to new highs (Brent oil futures have moved above US$104/b) on
concerns over further geopolitical instability.
Middle East unrest continues, spreads to major oil producers.
Unrest in Egypt and Tunisia has led to the toppling of autocratic rulers; Bahrain,
Yemen, Iran, and Libya face new (and continued) calls for change. The latter two are
especially important for oil markets. Iran is second to only Saudi Arabia in Opec
production, and ranks just fourth (lagging Russia and the United States) in total
supply for 2010. Our current year forecast calls for another +150kb/d in supply
growth from Iran as well. As we write this, reports that Iranian warships are heading
to Syria have caused an already-rallying Brent market to jump by an additional dollar
to the highest level since September 2008.
Also significant and key to price risks is Libya, which pumped some 1770 kb/d in
2010 (we forecast +1800 kb/d for 2011), while enjoying the largest proven oil
reserves in Africa.
Top three numbers in today’s weekly US oil data
Crude oil inventories added +0.9 mbs – though another significant addition on
the West Coast (+1.7mbs this week) prompted the national, and headline, build of
+0.9mbs. Further slippage in crude oil imports (-7%, or -643kb/d, wk/wk) was
more important.
Downstream stocks fell sharply, as total products drew -9.2mbs. Diesel and
Other products drove the stock change (-3.1mbs and -5.2mbs, respectively), while
gasoline inventories climbed by a modest +0.2mbs.
Demand growth re-accelerated to a healthy +1.5% (four week MA, y/y), led
almost entirely by transport fuels.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Weekly US oil data
Constructive US s/d numbers
Following several batches of seasonally weak US crude oil data, this week finally
turns a bit more constructive. Demand growth rebounded following nearly a month at
suppressed levels. And these mildly supportive fundamentals come as crude is
already pushing to new highs (Brent oil futures have moved above US$104/b) on
concerns over further geopolitical instability.
Middle East unrest continues, spreads to major oil producers.
Unrest in Egypt and Tunisia has led to the toppling of autocratic rulers; Bahrain,
Yemen, Iran, and Libya face new (and continued) calls for change. The latter two are
especially important for oil markets. Iran is second to only Saudi Arabia in Opec
production, and ranks just fourth (lagging Russia and the United States) in total
supply for 2010. Our current year forecast calls for another +150kb/d in supply
growth from Iran as well. As we write this, reports that Iranian warships are heading
to Syria have caused an already-rallying Brent market to jump by an additional dollar
to the highest level since September 2008.
Also significant and key to price risks is Libya, which pumped some 1770 kb/d in
2010 (we forecast +1800 kb/d for 2011), while enjoying the largest proven oil
reserves in Africa.
Top three numbers in today’s weekly US oil data
Crude oil inventories added +0.9 mbs – though another significant addition on
the West Coast (+1.7mbs this week) prompted the national, and headline, build of
+0.9mbs. Further slippage in crude oil imports (-7%, or -643kb/d, wk/wk) was
more important.
Downstream stocks fell sharply, as total products drew -9.2mbs. Diesel and
Other products drove the stock change (-3.1mbs and -5.2mbs, respectively), while
gasoline inventories climbed by a modest +0.2mbs.
Demand growth re-accelerated to a healthy +1.5% (four week MA, y/y), led
almost entirely by transport fuels.
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