09 February 2011

Macquarie Research, Oil & Gas Atlas- Energy equity markets rally

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Oil & Gas Atlas
Energy equity markets rally
Energy Market Indices WoW Changes
⇒ S&P/TSX Energy Index: +1.8%
⇒ S&P 500 E&P Index: +4.4%
⇒ Oil Service Sector Index: +3.1%
⇒ UK FTSE Oil & Gas Producers Index: -0.2%
⇒ Asia Pacific Oil & Gas Producers Index: +4.0%

Weekly Market Recap
WTI is down slightly WoW, closing at US$88.99 on 4 February. Brent closed at
US$96.19, giving it an 8.1% premium to WTI. DOE crude oil inventories rose by
2.6mmbbl this week, beating consensus estimates for a 2.5mmbbl build. Total US
crude oil inventories are now at 343.2mmbbl. On the natural gas front, the EIA
reported a net gas draw of 189bcf for the week, which was also in line with
consensus estimates of 187bcf draw. NYMEX natural gas supplies remain high, with
2.35tcf still in storage, despite cold temperatures in the critical US Midwest market.
The five-year average for gas in storage is 2.26tcf, a 4% difference.
Tensions in Egypt remain high, despite President Hosni Mubarak’s offer to resign
from the presidency by September. Crowds numbering in the hundreds of thousands
jammed Tahrir Square again on Friday for the so-called “Day of Departure”,
continuing calls for his ousting. The protests have begun to turn violent, raising the
risk of oil supply disruptions from the region.
In the Canadian large-cap space, Suncor and Imperial Oil released 4Q10 results last
week and both of them blew away expectations. They handily beat consensus
estimates on both EPS and CFPS, owing mainly to stronger refining margins in their
downstream segments. Higher oil prices and better-than-expected production also
helped both of the companies on their upstream revenues. Suncor is up 1.42% WoW
and Imperial Oil is up 5.83% WoW.
In the US space, Exxon Mobil Corp. released 4Q10 results last Monday, beating
consensus earnings estimates mainly on the strength of high production volumes.
Its chemicals business and lower corporate charges accounted for the rest of the
earnings beat. Also, InterOil Corp. was added to our international index last week.
Analyst Jason Gammel initiated coverage on Thursday with an Outperform rating
and $121 target, stating that a prolific resource base, high liquids yield, and low
construction costs will deliver outsized IRRs to their projects in Papua New Guinea.
On the overseas front, the integrated oil companies kicked off reporting season last
Tuesday. BP reported below-consensus adjusted earnings and gave guidance that
its 2011 production will be below most expectations. BP also stated that it will
be significantly reducing its refining footprint in the US. Royal Dutch Shell continued
the below-consensus earnings trend on Thursday, even though its upstream
production volumes beat consensus. Project start-up costs and lower nat-gas trading
revenues affected profits.

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