15 February 2011

Macquarie Research,:: Oi- Brent holds >$100 as Mubarak departs

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Oil market: week in review
Brent holds >$100 as Mubarak departs
 Brent was slightly higher week over week, gaining +1.6% to just under
US$101.43/b, while WTI continued to show significant weakness, ending the
week down -4.1% near US$85.42/b. Brent’s premium to WTI is now +US$16/b.
The week’s economic calendar was light, though data out of the US and Europe
was mostly bullish. Employment and inflation remain in the spotlight. Spot
correlation between crude and other macro benchmarks (FX, equities and US
treasuries) was insignificant. DOE data was again seasonally bearish, with a
headline crude build, a build in product stocks, and a continuation of the recent
slowdown in demand. The CFTC report showed a small increase in noncommercial
net futures positions, while total open interest increased to a new 40-
month high.

 Equity markets had another strong week, rallying to end the week at new precrisis
highs on Friday. The S&P500 gained +1.4% w/w, to close just above 1329.
 Looking forward, while the news of Mubarak’s departure should quell some risk
surrounding the Suez Canal, we will still keep a close watch on Egypt and
surrounding areas.
CFTC Commitments of traders report

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