15 February 2011

Macquarie Research:: Fund Flow Tracker -Selling across emerging Asia

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Fund Flow Tracker
Selling across emerging Asia
Local exchange data: YTD outflow except Japan & Taiwan
􀂃 Foreign net-selling across Asia ex-Japan. For the week ending 10 Feb,
2011, five of the six markets where high-frequency data is available (ie,
Korea, Taiwan, India, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines) recorded
foreign net-selling of equities. Altogether, they were net-sold by US$847m (vs.
US$382 for the prior week) primarily driven by an outflow of US$487m in
Korea. Taiwan recorded foreign net-selling of US$116m following a strong
week of inflow totalling US$776m and ending the 9-week streak of
consecutive foreign net-purchase. The TIPs markets combined were net-sold
by US$258m, principally driven by net-selling in Thailand of US$184m. India,
was the only (just) market to record net foreign buying, inching into positive
territory (US$14m compared to net-selling of US$735 the week before).

􀂃 Net-buying in Japan continued to increase. Foreign net-buying into Japan
increased US$1.4bn WoW to US$2.9bn and vs. the 52-week average of
US$605m. As at 10 Feb, 2011, Japan and Taiwan were the only two markets
to record positive YTD foreign net-buying, highlighting investor’s preference
for markets less troubled by inflationary pressures.
􀂃 Diminishing appetite for frontier markets. The three frontier markets were
collectively net-sold by US$4.6m, with Vietnam and Pakistan both recording
waning foreign net-buying WoW (US$5.9m and US$1.3m, respectively vs.
US$14.6m and US$7.2m the week before) while Sri-Lanka moved further into
the red (US$11.8m vs US$2.6m the week before).
Fund subscription data: Selective recovery
􀂃 Emerging Asia: Redemptions eased slightly from record levels. Following
a 157-week high of net-redemptions at US$1.3bn, pan-Asia ex-Japan regional
funds continued to experience weekly net-redemptions of US$630m.
Meanwhile, single-country funds saw easing weekly redemptions totalling
US$281m compared to US$799m a week before. Specifically, Taiwanfocused
funds received net-subscriptions of US$111m vs. the 52-week
average of US$7m, while Korea-focused funds received net-subscriptions of
US$64m vs. US$27m a week ago and the 52-week average of US$20m.
China funds were the main drag, recording weekly net-redemptions of
US$310m vs. the 52-week average net-positive subscription of US$65m amid
worries over tight monetary control weighing on the market.
􀂃 Developed Asia: Japan drives net-subscriptions. Japan funds received
weekly net-redemptions WoW of US$677m, stronger than the YTD average of
US$404m and well above the 52-week average of US$10m. Asia Pacific
funds (which include Japan, Australia and New Zealand in addition to
emerging Asia) recorded net-redemptions of US$351m, ending the 5-week
streak of net-positive subscriptions.
􀂃 Continued loss of risk appetite for the Emerging Markets Equity class.
Following record net-redemptions of US$4.5bn, GEM equity funds continued
to experience weekly net-redemptions totalling US$1.6bn.

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