Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Idea Cellular, an Aditya Birla Group company, is India's fifth largest wireless operator with a
revenue market share of ~13%. Idea operates in all the 22 telecom circles of which 13 are
classified as established service areas and 9 recently launched circles as new service areas.
Idea's strong execution and new circle launches will drive 20% average subscriber growth
p.a. FY11-13E. We expect consolidated EBITDA CAGR of 29% over FY11-13E. Idea's pan-
India expansion is already over, implying lower intensity of capex and EBITDA losses in the
new circles going forward
Key beneficiary of tower sharing initiatives including recent formation of Indus Towers - a
three way passive infrastructure JV between Bharti, Idea, and Vodafone
The company has won 3G Spectrum in 11 circles. 3G services are expected to be launched
by 4QFY11. We expect incremental 3G revenue to contribute 3-4% of wireless revenues in
FY12E
3QFY11 Revenue/EBITDA 2-3% above estimates
Idea Cellular reported consolidated revenue of Rs39.6b (+8.1% QoQ) and EBITDA of Rs9.5b
(+7.9% QoQ) in 3QFY11. Consolidated EBITDA margin of 24% (flat QoQ) was negatively
impacted (250bp) by higher sales and marketing costs. Consolidated PAT increased 42.9%
YoY and 35.2% QoQ to Rs2.43b led by lower finance costs and better-than-expected
EBITDA performance from Indus Towers for second consecutive quarter. Mobile traffic
(+10.2% QoQ) and RPM (-1.2% QoQ) surprised positively.
Idea reported 3QFY11 ARPU of Rs168 (2.7% above estimate), down 16% YoY but up 0.6%
QoQ. RPM declined 18.7% YoY and 1.2% QoQ to 41.8p. Minutes of use per subscriber
increased 3.1% YoY and 1.8% to 401. Total volumes carried on the network increased
10.2% QoQ to 93.5b minutes. Monthly churn increased further to 10%.
Lower tariff pressure, continued volume growth, 3G launch, and lower new circle losses are
expected to drive a strong 29% EBITDA CAGR for Idea over FY11-13E. We are upgrading
FY11 earnings by 30% to factor-in lower finance costs and phased impact of interest cost
and amortization for 3G spectrum fees. Maintain Buy with a price target of Rs90
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Idea Cellular, an Aditya Birla Group company, is India's fifth largest wireless operator with a
revenue market share of ~13%. Idea operates in all the 22 telecom circles of which 13 are
classified as established service areas and 9 recently launched circles as new service areas.
Idea's strong execution and new circle launches will drive 20% average subscriber growth
p.a. FY11-13E. We expect consolidated EBITDA CAGR of 29% over FY11-13E. Idea's pan-
India expansion is already over, implying lower intensity of capex and EBITDA losses in the
new circles going forward
Key beneficiary of tower sharing initiatives including recent formation of Indus Towers - a
three way passive infrastructure JV between Bharti, Idea, and Vodafone
The company has won 3G Spectrum in 11 circles. 3G services are expected to be launched
by 4QFY11. We expect incremental 3G revenue to contribute 3-4% of wireless revenues in
FY12E
3QFY11 Revenue/EBITDA 2-3% above estimates
Idea Cellular reported consolidated revenue of Rs39.6b (+8.1% QoQ) and EBITDA of Rs9.5b
(+7.9% QoQ) in 3QFY11. Consolidated EBITDA margin of 24% (flat QoQ) was negatively
impacted (250bp) by higher sales and marketing costs. Consolidated PAT increased 42.9%
YoY and 35.2% QoQ to Rs2.43b led by lower finance costs and better-than-expected
EBITDA performance from Indus Towers for second consecutive quarter. Mobile traffic
(+10.2% QoQ) and RPM (-1.2% QoQ) surprised positively.
Idea reported 3QFY11 ARPU of Rs168 (2.7% above estimate), down 16% YoY but up 0.6%
QoQ. RPM declined 18.7% YoY and 1.2% QoQ to 41.8p. Minutes of use per subscriber
increased 3.1% YoY and 1.8% to 401. Total volumes carried on the network increased
10.2% QoQ to 93.5b minutes. Monthly churn increased further to 10%.
Lower tariff pressure, continued volume growth, 3G launch, and lower new circle losses are
expected to drive a strong 29% EBITDA CAGR for Idea over FY11-13E. We are upgrading
FY11 earnings by 30% to factor-in lower finance costs and phased impact of interest cost
and amortization for 3G spectrum fees. Maintain Buy with a price target of Rs90
No comments:
Post a Comment