Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Gujarat State Petronet (GSPL) Meets expectations…
GSPL has declared its Q3FY11 results above our estimates due to a
change in depreciation rate of pipelines during the quarter. GSPL
reported revenues of | 279.5 crore (up 4.1% YoY), EBITDA of | 262.3
crore (up 3.6% YoY) and PAT of | 159.1 crore (up 37.9% YoY). The gas
transmission tariffs stood at | 0.86 per scm in Q3FY11, above our
estimates. The gas transmission volume remained flat YoY and QoQ at
35.3 mmscmd in Q3FY11. We believe supply to the Essar and GSPC
power plant would increase its gas transmission volumes in the coming
quarters. We estimate GSPL’s volumes at 36.3 mmscmd, 41.3 mmscmd
and 46.8 mmscmd in FY11E, FY12E and FY13E, respectively. The
company expects final approval for authorisation of its pipelines in
Q1FY12 from PNGRB when its transmission tariffs would be finalised.
We estimate gas transmission tariffs of | 0.725 per scm for GSPL from
FY12 onwards. GSPL (52% share) and OMCs (IOC, BPCL, HPCL) JV has
won bids for Mallavaram-Bhilwara, Mehsana-Bhatinda, Bhatinda-
Jammu-Srinagar pipelines, which would provide upsides to the stock,
going forward. Currently, we have not modelled in these pipelines in
our estimates. We recommend a BUY rating on GSPL with a target price
of | 108.
Highlights of the quarter
GSPL reported flat gas transmission volumes YoY as well as QoQ at
35.3 mmscmd in Q3FY11. The gas transmission tariffs increased
YoY from | 0.83 per scm in Q3FY10 to | 0.86 per scm in Q3FY11 on
account of higher transportation distance of gas.
Valuation
We continue to remain positive on GSPL on account of steady growth in
volumes and profitability. New pipeline bids would also add value to the
stock. However, in the short term, it will impact the profitability on higher
interest costs. Currently, we have not modelled in these pipelines in our
estimates. We have valued GSPL based on DCF (WACC-12.4%, terminal
growth-2%) to arrive at a price target of | 108.
Other Updates
The GSPL (52% share) and OMCs (IOC-26%, BPCL-11%, HPCL-11%) JV
has won bids for Mallavaram-Bhilwara, Mehsana-Bhatinda and Bhatinda-
Jammu-Srinagar pipelines, which would provide upsides to the stock,
going forward. The company expects the formal authorisation from
PNGRB for these pipelines to come by August, 2011. Currently, we have
not modelled in these pipelines in our estimates.
Valuations
We continue to remain positive on GSPL on account of steady growth in
volumes and profitability. New pipeline bids would also add value to the
stock. However, in the short term, it will impact the profitability on higher
interest costs. Currently, we have not modelled in these pipelines in our
estimates. We have valued GSPL based on DCF (WACC-12.4%, terminal
growth-2%) to arrive at a price target of | 108.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Gujarat State Petronet (GSPL) Meets expectations…
GSPL has declared its Q3FY11 results above our estimates due to a
change in depreciation rate of pipelines during the quarter. GSPL
reported revenues of | 279.5 crore (up 4.1% YoY), EBITDA of | 262.3
crore (up 3.6% YoY) and PAT of | 159.1 crore (up 37.9% YoY). The gas
transmission tariffs stood at | 0.86 per scm in Q3FY11, above our
estimates. The gas transmission volume remained flat YoY and QoQ at
35.3 mmscmd in Q3FY11. We believe supply to the Essar and GSPC
power plant would increase its gas transmission volumes in the coming
quarters. We estimate GSPL’s volumes at 36.3 mmscmd, 41.3 mmscmd
and 46.8 mmscmd in FY11E, FY12E and FY13E, respectively. The
company expects final approval for authorisation of its pipelines in
Q1FY12 from PNGRB when its transmission tariffs would be finalised.
We estimate gas transmission tariffs of | 0.725 per scm for GSPL from
FY12 onwards. GSPL (52% share) and OMCs (IOC, BPCL, HPCL) JV has
won bids for Mallavaram-Bhilwara, Mehsana-Bhatinda, Bhatinda-
Jammu-Srinagar pipelines, which would provide upsides to the stock,
going forward. Currently, we have not modelled in these pipelines in
our estimates. We recommend a BUY rating on GSPL with a target price
of | 108.
Highlights of the quarter
GSPL reported flat gas transmission volumes YoY as well as QoQ at
35.3 mmscmd in Q3FY11. The gas transmission tariffs increased
YoY from | 0.83 per scm in Q3FY10 to | 0.86 per scm in Q3FY11 on
account of higher transportation distance of gas.
Valuation
We continue to remain positive on GSPL on account of steady growth in
volumes and profitability. New pipeline bids would also add value to the
stock. However, in the short term, it will impact the profitability on higher
interest costs. Currently, we have not modelled in these pipelines in our
estimates. We have valued GSPL based on DCF (WACC-12.4%, terminal
growth-2%) to arrive at a price target of | 108.
Other Updates
The GSPL (52% share) and OMCs (IOC-26%, BPCL-11%, HPCL-11%) JV
has won bids for Mallavaram-Bhilwara, Mehsana-Bhatinda and Bhatinda-
Jammu-Srinagar pipelines, which would provide upsides to the stock,
going forward. The company expects the formal authorisation from
PNGRB for these pipelines to come by August, 2011. Currently, we have
not modelled in these pipelines in our estimates.
Valuations
We continue to remain positive on GSPL on account of steady growth in
volumes and profitability. New pipeline bids would also add value to the
stock. However, in the short term, it will impact the profitability on higher
interest costs. Currently, we have not modelled in these pipelines in our
estimates. We have valued GSPL based on DCF (WACC-12.4%, terminal
growth-2%) to arrive at a price target of | 108.
No comments:
Post a Comment