25 February 2011

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) Feb 25, 2011

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
§  Yesterdays session was a bloodbath on the street as the index dropped >3% on the quadruple witching day. Volumes in yesterday’s session were above 30-day average and volatility spiked up. Nifty broke key intraday supports as well as broke below the bullish gap area formed lat week. It has retraced 78.6% of the previous week’s upmove further looking ominous. Momentum oscillators have turned down after the sharp fall turning the trend bearish. Market breadth was at an extreme in favour of the declines. Nifty 50 stocks A/D ratio too was at an extreme 1:11. Nifty has emphatically broken the short-term uptrend as suggested by the long daily candlestick pattern. There can be an intraday pullback based on oversold oscillator conditions; the outlook has now become a sell on rallies. Nifty will likely take support at 5160 (trendline joining Oct 2009 and May 2010 lows) initially and the psychological 5000 mark.
§  All sectoral indices ended in the red in yesterday’s bloodshed. Banking, Cap Goods, Autos & Realty were the major losers. Technology was the most noted outperformer. India VIX has entered a trending phase on close above 28.
§  Bullish Setups: HDFC, Suzlon (SUEL), TCS, Hero Honda (HH), Sterlite (STLT)
§  Bearish Setups: DLF, YES Bank, Sun Pharma (SUNP), LT, RCOM
§  Gold & Silver continue trending higher after taking support near the 20-WEMA. Gold is trading near the all-time high if $1425, while Silver is headed for the record $41. Crude has retraced 61.8% of the entire 2008-09 bear market and has moderated below $100. However at $97 it will attract buyers for a 10% upside in the coming weeks.

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