16 February 2011

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) 16 Feb 2011

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
§  Nifty extended the gains in yesterday’s session to close with gains of ~0.5%. It was a volatile intraday session as the index declined in the first, then recovered smartly to break past the 5500 mark briefly, and witnessed a mild correction thereon. Nifty has halted the two day scorching rally at the 20-SDMA & multiple resistance cluster of 5500. Momentum oscillator MACD has triggered a buy crossover on the daily chart along with other short-term oscillators shifting the bias in favour of bulls. As expected the market breadth moderated and remained in favour of the advances. Nifty 50 stocks A/D cooled off to 1.6:1. Nifty has achieved the short-term target of 5500 and is expected to consolidate between 5500-5400 for few sessions before returning to trend. A daily close above 5500 (20-DMA) will trigger a short-term bullish reversal for a test of 5625 (200-DMA). On the other hand 50-hourly EMA at 5385 will protect the downside risk.
§  Sectoral trends were mixed after a secular upmove in the previous two sessions. Oil & Gas shares staged a comeback, followed by decent gains in Baking shares.  Profit taking was witnessed in Cap Goods and Realty stocks after two sessions of rally. Technology shares are trading with a sideways bias and will continue to remain so. CNXBANK has halted at the height of the declining trend channel. A close above 11000 will confirm a bullish breakout and in turn result in a Nifty rally. 

Bullish Setups: Reliance (RIL), LIC Hsg (LICHF), IVRCL Infra, (IVRC), RCOM, REC (RECL), UniPhos (UNTP) 

Bearish Setups: HUL (HUVR), BHEL, Sterlite (STLT)
§  US and European equities are weakening on waning momentum, as well as sell signals getting triggered in the short-term. Expect declines down to 10-DEMA and 21-DEMA in the near term. Copper declined sharply in yesterday’s session triggering a short-term reversal.

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