14 February 2011

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) 14 Feb 2011

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
§  The much anticipated pullback came in Friday’s session after the index made a fresh low of 5177. Nifty has taken support at the lower end of the eleven month channel which was broken higher in September 2010. Additionally the lower Bollinger Band has supported the index, and we expect a move towards the mid-Bollinger band. Short-term oscillators have moved emphatically in buy after being in oversold territory for long and will lead to a sustained up move. Market breadth turned strongly in favor of the advances; and the Nifty 50 stocks A/D was robust at 1:2. Nifty is expected to rally towards 5380 (10-DEMA) initially and even extend the gains towards 5600 (close to 200-SDMA). In the short-term 5170 will act as a strong support and likely be a floor for the current month.
§  Fridays rally was led by strong moves in Banking, Consumer Durables and Auto shares. Cap Goods and Realty too witnessed late gains. Weakness persisted in Technology, Telecom, and the defensive FMCG space. We maintain a bullish reversal scenario in BSE Realty index with a ‘bullish hammer’ on daily chart. A rebound towards 2300 is in the offing. 
Bullish Setups: Fortis Healthcare (FORH), PTC (PTCIN), Kotak Bank (KMB), L&T (LT), IDFC 
Bearish Setups: Ambuja Cements (ACEM), Tech Mahindra (TECHM), BHEL.
§  US and European equities continue to trade in positive territory, however we maintaining a cautious stance on the back of weakening momentum near key resistance levels. DXY has clawed back previous days’ loss as the weekly bullish hammer candlestick pattern will keep the focus higher.

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