03 February 2011

Bharti Airtel 3QFY11 – This time for Africa! Standard Chartered Research

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Bharti Airtel
3QFY11 – This time for Africa!

 Bharti’s 3Q disappointed on domestic business but
Africa delivered positive surprise
 Gains in Africa on the back of re-branding and tariff
intervention; management optimistic in coming quarters
 India margins impacted by higher SG&A (ex rebranding)
 One-offs from higher-than-expected branding costs and
forex/MTM losses led to a net profit decline of 27% qoq
 Reiterate O/P. one-time impact from the New Telecom
Policy 2011 (NTP-11) to be offset by competitive
stability and lower spectrum charges.
Net profit down due to one-offs: Consolidated net profit at
Rs13.0bn declined 22% qoq due to one-off re-branding
expenditure of Rs3.4bn (vs. our estimate of Rs2-2.5bn) and
exchange rate loss of Rs1.5bn. Consolidated revenue
(Rs157.5bn, up 3.3% qoq) was in-line. However,
consolidated EBITDA (Rs49.6bn, down 2.7% qoq) was 6%
below our estimate due to higher re-branding costs and
higher SG&A. India SG&A increased due to higher gross
adds (200bps increase in churn). Africa SG&A increased
due to higher office expenses and one-time legal fees.
Africa – early signs of monetising the assets: Revenue
at US$911m was ahead of our estimate and EBITDA
margin (ex-rebranding) increased 110bps. Initial signs of
elasticity and/or market share gains are encouraging as
minutes increased 17% qoq and delivered 9% qoq revenue
growth despite 8% decline in RPM. Management indicated
that the present year capex of US$800m is mainly for
capacity but FY12 capex will be 70% for coverage; and
growth to accelerate from 2Q FY12 onwards.  
India KPIs in line, but EBITDA below expectations:
Revenue at Rs117bn, minutes growth of 4.4% qoq and
rev/min decline of 0.25p was broadly in-line. EBITDA
margins disappointed due to higher SG&A in mobile and dip
in non-mobile businesses.  
Reiterate Outperform:  Our positive stance is based on
domestic tariff stability and turnaround in Africa over FY12-
13E. The one-off impact from the New Telecom policy is
likely to be offset by lower spectrum charges as well as
additional burden on the new entrants, in our view.




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