Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Weekly US oil data
Seasonal trends starting to kick in
Today‟s DoE weekly oil report was decidedly bearish. Crude inventories grew,
products‟ stocks were mostly higher, and demand retreated in nearly all categories.
While many of these patterns are seasonally “normal” and therefore less surprising,
there is still some downside, or consolidation, risk to crude prices following their
fundamentals-driven run toward US$100/b in recent weeks.
Keeping an eye on Supply
The IEA‟s January edition of the “Oil Market Report” cites a ramp up in Opec
production in response to heightened global oil demand into year-end. Though this
data is backward-looking, we cannot find much supporting evidence. And more
current data (import levels, tanker-tracking, etc) suggests otherwise also: we see no
material increase in production. While we believe this may be some wishful thinking
out of the IEA, it reiterates the fact that Opec is the key difference-maker for prices.
And recent comments from Opec members suggest that price levels are fair and no
action is necessary with respect to production quotas. We continue with our base
case assumption that nothing substantial will come out of Opec until after the refining
maintenance season is over and we head into 2H2011.
A quick comment on the situation in Tunisia: If that type of political unrest spreads to
nearby countries that are similarly unstable, we will need to start worrying more
about our oil production estimates.
Top three numbers in today’s weekly US oil data
Crude oil inventories grew by +2.6mbls, in spite of a drop in imports and
significantly lower refinery runs. Stocks at Cushing, OK fell -0.6mbls w/w.
Total oil products inventories re-established their trend lower. These stocks
decreased by -0.3mbls, though levels would have built had it not been for yet
another large draw (-7.1mbls) from the „other product‟ category.
Demand growth decelerated to 3.8% (four week MA, y/y), and the single week
numbers show signs of a turn higher.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Weekly US oil data
Seasonal trends starting to kick in
Today‟s DoE weekly oil report was decidedly bearish. Crude inventories grew,
products‟ stocks were mostly higher, and demand retreated in nearly all categories.
While many of these patterns are seasonally “normal” and therefore less surprising,
there is still some downside, or consolidation, risk to crude prices following their
fundamentals-driven run toward US$100/b in recent weeks.
Keeping an eye on Supply
The IEA‟s January edition of the “Oil Market Report” cites a ramp up in Opec
production in response to heightened global oil demand into year-end. Though this
data is backward-looking, we cannot find much supporting evidence. And more
current data (import levels, tanker-tracking, etc) suggests otherwise also: we see no
material increase in production. While we believe this may be some wishful thinking
out of the IEA, it reiterates the fact that Opec is the key difference-maker for prices.
And recent comments from Opec members suggest that price levels are fair and no
action is necessary with respect to production quotas. We continue with our base
case assumption that nothing substantial will come out of Opec until after the refining
maintenance season is over and we head into 2H2011.
A quick comment on the situation in Tunisia: If that type of political unrest spreads to
nearby countries that are similarly unstable, we will need to start worrying more
about our oil production estimates.
Top three numbers in today’s weekly US oil data
Crude oil inventories grew by +2.6mbls, in spite of a drop in imports and
significantly lower refinery runs. Stocks at Cushing, OK fell -0.6mbls w/w.
Total oil products inventories re-established their trend lower. These stocks
decreased by -0.3mbls, though levels would have built had it not been for yet
another large draw (-7.1mbls) from the „other product‟ category.
Demand growth decelerated to 3.8% (four week MA, y/y), and the single week
numbers show signs of a turn higher.
No comments:
Post a Comment