25 January 2011

UBS - Idea Cellular 3Q11: Impressive minutes growth

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UBS Investment Research
Idea Cellular
3Q11: Impressive minutes growth
􀂄 Revenue and EBITDA in-line with UBS estimates; Net Income ahead
Idea announced consolidated 3Q11 results: Revenues grew 8.1% qoq at Rs39.6bn
(UBS-e Rs39.5bn), EBITDA grew 7.9% qoq to Rs9.5bn (UBS-e Rs9.6bn), and net
profit grew 35.2% qoq to Rs2.4bn (UBS-e Rs2.0bn). Net income was higher than
UBS estimates mainly due to lower net interest expense and tax.

􀂄 Voice rev/min remained flat; mins on network grew strongly at 10.2% qoq
Total minutes on the network (standalone) increased from 84.8bn mins in 2QFY11
to 93.5bn mins (+10.2% qoq) ahead of UBS-e (91.0bn mins). Mobile voice rev/min
remained flat at Rs0.38/min in-line with UBS-e. Mobile EBITDA margin from
initial 11 service areas declined 30bps qoq to 26.7%, while EBITDA losses from
new service areas remained flat at Rs1.4bn in 3QFY11. On an overall basis, mobile
EBITDA margins remained flat 20.6% in 3QFY11.
􀂄 Other results highlight
1) Idea plans to launch 3G services in the 11 3G licensed service areas in the next
few months. It capitalised interest of Rs1.2bn related to 3G debt in 3QFY11. Idea
has net debt of Rs106.8bn as of Dec’10. 2) Idea lowered its FY11 capex guidance
to Rs30bn from Rs40bn given earlier on account of capex savings and spill over to
next quarter. 3) Indus Towers contributed Rs1.3bn (13%) to consolidated EBITDA
and Rs222m (9%) to consolidated net profit
􀂄 Valuation: Maintain Buy rating with SOTP based price target of Rs105
Idea is hosting a conference call on January 25, 2011 to discuss the performance
(refer to Table 4 for dial in details).

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