Sugar: 3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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Balrampur Chini Mills
􀂄 BCML is expected to post revenues of INR5bn in 5QFY11, an increase of 14% YoY. This
will be mainly on account of higher contribution from cogen division and a marginal
increase in revenues of sugar and distillery divisions. On the performance of sugar
division, we expect volumes to rise by 14% to 155,000mt and average realisations to
decline by 12% to INR26,500/mt.
􀂄 We expect OPM to shrink by 1,790bps to 12.1% as the December 2009 quarter was
one of the best quarter. Accordingly, operating profits should decline by 54% to
INR602m.
􀂄 Capital charges should increase by 10% to INR490m on account of higher interest
outgo. We expect net profits to decline by 87% to INR101m.

Shree Renuka Sugars
􀂄 We anticipate company to report a revenue growth of 51% YoY to INR21.6bn in 1QFY11,
on the back of contribution from VDI and Renuka do Brazil. We expect domestic volumes
of 390,000mt and have assumed average realisation of ~INR25,500/mt.
􀂄 Margins are expected to decline by 460bps to 20.7% as 1QFY10 was one of the best
quarter for the industry in terms of margins on account of inventory gains. Accordingly,
operating profits should rise 24% to INR4.5bn.
􀂄 Capital charges should increase by 5.5x to INR2.7bn on account of consolidation of
VDI and RDB operations. We expect the company to post net profits of INR947m as
against INR2.6bn in 1QFY10.
Triveni Engineering & Industries
􀂄 For 1QFY11, we expect TEIL net sales to grow by 6% YoY to INR5.1bn, primarily led by
better performance from the engineering division and higher sugar volumes. Engineering
division should post a healthy growth of 18% in revenues to INR1.9bn.
􀂄 We expect OPM to shrink by 1,060bps to 15.3% leading to operating profits decline of
38% to INR785m. With lower debt and working capital requirements coupled with
absence of capex, we anticipate capital charges to remain stable at INR380m.
􀂄 We expect TEIL to post profits (before extra-ordinary) of INR324m against INR562m in
1QFY10.