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Kajaria Ceramics Q3FY11 Results Expectations - Net Sales Rs 2.4 bn, APAT Rs 150 mn
With key revenue drivers of - encouraging industry demand, strong growth from upper end vitrified tiles and higher trading revenues – we expect aggregate revenues of Rs 2.4 bn, +32% yoy. We estimate EBITDA margins to remain stable at 15.7% resulting in PAT growth of 81% yoy to Rs 150 mn. We have recently revised our FY11E and FY12E earnings by 10% to Rs 7.5 and Rs 10, respectively on account of higher trading revenues and subsequently revised our target price by 10% to Rs 100.
For 9MFY11, we expect the company to report 26% yoy growth in revenues to Rs 6.5 bn. EBITDA margins however are likely to decline marginally by 40 bps over previous year 9MFY10 to 15.8%. We estimate 9MFY11 APAT at Rs 396 mn (+72% yoy) and AEPS of Rs 5.4.
TVS Motor Company Limited (TVSM) – Q2FY11 Result expectation
We expect TVSM to report strong numbers for 3QFY11 driven by strong volumes (40% growth YoY). EBIDTA margins to improve 60 bps YoY to 6.9%. However, sequentially there is no improvement in margins. Key things to watch out for (1) raw material price contracts and (2) Indonesia business as volumes have nosedived in Indonesia
n Net sales are expected to grow by 48.6% YoY and 0.2% QoQ to Rs 16.2bn.
n EBITDA is expected to grow by 63.2% YoY and 3.5% QoQ to Rs 1.1bn
n EBIDTA margin is likely to improve by 60 bps YoY and 20bps sequentially to 6.9%
n APAT is expected to grow by 122.9% YoY and 4.4% QoQ to Rs 524mn.
Ashok Leyland Limited (ALL) – Q3FY11 result expectation
Q3FY11 will be subdued for ALL as compared to 1HFY11 due to slower volume growth (14% YoY/-25% QoQ). 3QFY11 will be featured by margin pressure with EBIDTA margins declining 170 bps YoY and 150 bps QoQ to 9.8%. Key things to watch out for (1) Rampup in volume at Pantnagar and (2) raw material cost pressure
n We expect net sales to grow by 20.0% YoY but decline 19.7% QoQ to Rs 21.8bn
n We expect EBIDTA to grow by 3.8% YoY but decline 30.1% QoQ to Rs 2.1bn
n EBIDTA margin are likely to decline by 170bps YoY and 150 bps QoQ to 9.8%.
n We expect APAT of Rs. 965mn decline of 7.8% YoY and 42.2% QoQ
United Bank of India Q3FY11 result estimates
The bank NII is likely to grow by a strong 52.8% benefiting from low base. But lower trading gains (Rs200mn) in Q3FY11 vs Q3FY10 (Rs540mn) and accelerated provisioning (1.2% of advances in Q3FY11 as against 0.4% in Q3FY10) will moderate net profit growth. Key things to watch 1) Low provision cover (50.0% in Q2FY11) 2) Slippage rate during the quarter (2.0% in H1FY11 and 2.3% in FY10).
South Indian Bank (SIB) Q3FY11 result estimates
We expect SIB’s NII to grow by 40% driven by 28.2% yoy growth in advances and stable NIM’s at 3.0%. Driven by strong NII growth, the operating profit growth will be higher at 46% despite providing for pension (Rs180mn). A very high tax rate of 48% in Q3FY10 will help SIB show strong 106.9%yoy growth in profits. Delinquencies to remain in line with H1FY11 trends (0.5% annualized).
Yes Bank Q3FY11 result estimates
Yes bank NII to grow by 50.2%yoy to Rs3.2bn led by 15.0%qoq growth in advances, albeit NIM’s to contract by 40bps to 2.3% on account of significant rise in cost of funds (+55bps qoq). Other income likely to remain strong (29% yoy) underpinned by strong capital markets and healthy advance growth. Key things to watch out- Slippage rate as exposure to MFI/ Telecom/ Real estate is high at 15% of advances.
Cadila Healthcare Q3FY11 Result Update; Multiple catalyst in pipeline; Raise target price; Accumulate; Target: Rs 847
n Robust revenue growth (up 18% YoY) and strong operating performance (up 22% YoY) resulted in 28% YoY growth in APAT
n Strong revenue growth was driven by 17% growth in domestic branded formulation business and 33% growth in the US
n Management has re-iterated its revenue guidance of US$1bn for FY11E and domestic growth to sustain at 15% level
n Based on attractive valuations and fair visibility in FY13, we revise the target price upwards to Rs847 (earlier Rs720)
GAIL Q3FY11 Result Update; Results inline with expectation; Maintain ACCUMULATE; Target: Rs 565
n Results were inline with estimate at revenue, EBIDTA and PAT level
n Revenue from natural gas transmission, LPG transmission and trading business increased by 17%, 11% and 50% YoY respectively
n Subsidy payout for Q3FY11 decline by 8% YoY to Rs.4.2bn (+21%QoQ), however, on full year basis, FY11E subsidy is expected to be higher at Rs.16bn as against Rs13bn in FY10
n Accumulate with TP of Rs.565, given its dominant market share in transmission business and expected volume growth. Subsidy sharing remains a key overhang on the stock
HT Media Q3FY11 Result Update; Ad revenues back on track, Radio surprises; Buy; Target: Rs 175
n Q3FY11 revenues better than our expectation, growing 27.0% (Emkay estimates of 24%) yoy to Rs 4651 million
n Cons. ad-revenues grew by 27% yoy with Hindi ad-revenue growth of 35% yoy and English at 25% yoy
n EBIDTA margins at 19.0% (our estimate of 17.8%) declined by 136 bps yoy while improved 125bps qoq, led by higher revenue realization and significant contribution from Radio segment
n Due to recent correction in stock - Upgrade to BUY rating from HOLD with target price maintained at Rs175
Petronet LNG Q3FY11 Result Update; Results above expectation; Maintain BUY; Target: Rs 156
n Results were above estimate, mainly due to higher volume growth of 26% to 119.7tbtu during the quarter
n EBIDTA margin expanded by 20bps YoY to 9.5% (60bps QoQ), mainly on account of higher spot volumes offtake during the quarter
n Signed medium term contract of 1.1mmtpa LNG, provides further upside to long term volumes from 7.5mmtpa to 8.6mmtpa
n Rise in LNG import and re-gasification charges to help ROE increase from 19% to 22.4% by FY13E, maintain BUY with PT of Rs.156
LIC Housing Finance Q3FY11 Result Update; Robust results but spreads under pressure; Under Review
n LICHF earnings ahead of estimates at Rs3.0bn led by higher than expected NII and lower tax rate
n NIMs surprisingly expand by 22bps as LICHF revised lending rate on old loans by 50bps wef Oct 2010 even as incremental spreads contracted by 47bps
n Another 50bps hike in PLR (from Jan-11) alongwith 50-85bps increase in rates for advantage five scheme will contain the fall in incre spreads and strongly support NIMs
n Very positive on the stock with valuations at 1.6x FY12E ABV – almost near 10-yr average. We will be reviewing our rating and price target after talking to management
HCL Technologies Q2FY11 Result Update; In line quarter, retain HOLD; Target: Rs 540
n Inline results with revenues at US$ 864 mn (+7.5% QoQ) , mgns improving by ~10 bps QoQ to 15.7% (V/s exp of ~40 bps increase). Pfts in line at Rs 3.7 bn (+25%QoQ, +37% YoY)
n Apps and IMS drive revenue growth at ~7.3%/9.4% QoQ increase. Top 5 clients grow by ~2% QoQ while top 5-10 grow by ~15.4% sequentially
n See ‘no xing’ to QoQ margin improvement (wasn’t that expected after a steep ~640 bps decline over the past 5 quarters?)
n Increase our FY12/13E EPS by 6.8%/4.1% to Rs 31.9/38.4 aided primarily by currency resets. HOLD with a revised TPof Rs 540, based on 14xFY13E earnings( V/s Rs 430 earlier)
Tata Steel FPO Note; Following on the restructuring path; Subscribe; Price Band: Rs 594- 610
n Tata Steel announced to issue 57 million shares as follow on public offering including 1.5 million shares for the employees
n At the higher and lower ends of the price band, the company would mop up Rs 34.8 billion and Rs 33.9 billion respectively
n On fully subscription, there would be an equity dilution of 6.3% and at the extended equity base the promoters’ stake would come down to 30.5% from 32.5%
n At our target price of Rs 712, on the upper end of the offer price band the stock has a potential upside of 17%. Recommend SUBSCRIBE
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