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Oil and Gas
ƒ Strong growth in volumes and increase in net realisations YoY
Gas volumes would report a steady YoY increase on account of
higher demand from the industrial and CNG segment. Oil production
would increase on account of higher production from the Rajasthan
fields. The YoY increase in Brent crude oil prices from $76.4/bbl to
$86.9/bbl in Q3FY11 would increase the realisations of E&P
companies. The under recoveries of PSU companies would increase
in the current quarter due to higher crude oil prices.
ƒ Gross refining margin to increase QoQ
Singapore gross refining margins (GRM) have increased QoQ from
$4.2 per barrel in Q2FY11 to $5.5 per barrel in Q3FY11 on account of
higher gasoline, naphtha spreads and strong winter demand.
Cairn India
Ltd
Revenues are expected to increase 502.3% YoY due to the ramp up of oil production
from the Mangala field. The net oil & gas production is expected to increase 305.4%
YoY to 99,736 boepd and oil realisation is expected to increase by 4.7% YoY to $77.3
per barrel
Gujarat Gas Volumes are expected to increase 20.5% YoY to 3.6 mmscmd due to resumption of
gas from the PMT fields. Realisation would improve 5.5% YoY but would decline QoQ
to | 14.8 per scm. Margins would decline YoY by 80 bps to 19.1% in Q4CY10E on
account of higher procurement of LNG
GSPL Revenues are expected to decline YoY on account of a decline in transmission
charges from | 0.83 per scm to | 0.77 per scm YoY. The gas sales volume would
increase marginally by 1.6% YoY to 35.7 mmscmd on account of a delay in
commissioning of new plants in Gujarat
Indraprastha
Gas
Revenues would increase 65.9% YoY on account of a 27.5% increase in sales
volume to 2.78 mmscmd and 30.3% increase in gross realisation to | 20.8 per scm.
However, margins are expected to decline on an increase in APM gas prices
Oil India Revenues are expected to increase YoY mainly on account of higher crude oil
production and higher net oil & gas realisations. We expect oil production of 6.63
mmboe (1.8% YoY increase), subsidy of $22.6 per barrel and net realisation of $63.4
per barrel in Q3FY11E against $58.8 per barrel in Q2FY11
Petronet LNG We expect robust revenue growth YoY due to higher volumes as well as
realisations. We expect volumes to increase 19.7% YoY to 114 trillion british thermal
unit (2.2 million tonnes) in Q3FY11. PAT is expected to increase substantially on
account of higher regasification margins to | 27.7 per mmbtu
Shiv Vani Oil We expect revenues to increase 6.7% YoY on account of traction in execution of the
order book of ~| 3,200 crore. The EBITDA margin is expected to remain at 44% in
Q3FY11
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