20 January 2011

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) January 20, 2011

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
§  After two sessions of positive trade Nifty seems to have hit a wall of resistance dropping sharply lower in the second half of yesterday’s session. The 50-hourly MA is keeping gains in check as the bulls seem to have lost steam. The higher top higher bottom sequence of the previous two days has been negated by an ‘outside bar’ pattern. Hourly MACD is nearing the zero line signaling an end of the corrective cycle. After a brief improvement, the market breadth has slipped in favor of advancing stocks; while Nifty 50 stocks A/D ratio was weak at 1:2. Nifty is expected to consolidate above the 200-SDMA, in a range between 5600-5775. A sustained directional move is likely on a break of the range in either direction. The medium term outlook however remains negative on the back of declining price and momentum action.

§  High beta Metals and Realty shares attracted late buying interest perking up by >1.5%. Cap Goods, IT and Oil & Gas stocks traded with a negative bias taking the leading indices lower. BSE Realty Index moved up smartly in yesterday’s session triggering a short-term bullish signal. Oscillator has triggered a buy crossover with positive divergence which is likely to take the index up by ~6%. Bullish Setups: INFY, DLF, HCLT, SAIL, BHARTI, CAIR, LT, HZ Bearish Setups: CNXBANK, HH, DRRD, ACEM.

§  EUR has breached above the 1.35 mark but is unable to close above. The momentum setup has turned short-term bullish which could lead to further gains in the coming sessions. Crude Oil is trading in a choppy manner with an upside bias with an eye towards $97-$100. India VIX has reacted lower from the 25.50 mark, but is resting at the 20 and 50 DMA support which will protect the uptrend.

§  Interesting chart setupsHZ, PLNG, CAIR, HH, CNXBANK

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