07 January 2011

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) 7 Jan 2011

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
§  Nifty dropped for the third day in a row closing below the 6050 level, and is off ~2% from the high of 6181. For the second session the selling activity remained consistent throughout the day on good volumes. Momentum and trend oscillators are now pointing lower with a sell signal on daily chart. Hourly oscillators too are in sell mode, but approaching oversold territory. Market breadth remains strongly favor of declining stocks. Nifty 50 stocks A/D ratio was weak at 1:1.5. Nifty has taken support at the 21-DEMA at 6031, as well as resting at the trend channel (black) support at 6020. In the initial part of the day, a decline towards 6000 (a psychological support) is likely after which a counter trend move should set in. The index is slated to close the week in the red snapping back three weeks of gains. Alternatively a drop below 5982 would trigger a medium term sell signal and open up downside towards 5820.
§  Realty shares took the brunt of selling activity with a loss of >2%. Significant selling was also seen in Cap Goods and Auto space. IT shares on the other hand prevented further loss with gains of ~0.5%. Bullish Setups: HCLT, DIVI, JSP, HNDL, ITC, PWGR, GAIL Bearish Setups: KMBH, ONGC, BJAUT, HH, BPCL, ACC, TTMT
§  India VIX has moved above the 10-DEMA at 18, and on a close above 18.35 would confirm a pick up in vols. Gold continues to trade above $1353, holding on to the uptrend, despite a triple top pattern at $1425. European and US indices have closed with marginal gains, under a bullish technical setup.
§  Interesting chart setups: HCLT, DIVI, ITC, BJAUT, TTMT

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