27 January 2011

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) 27 January, 2011

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
§  Nifty opened with a bullish gap on Tuesday, but after the announcement of the Monetary Policy, it dropped sharply from a test of the 21-DEMA at 5800. The decline came on the back of forceful volumes and pierced the 21 and 50 hourly EMA support. Nifty has formed a ‘bearish engulfing / outside bar’ which will likely add selling pressure in today’s important monthly derivatives settlement session. Daily RSI has turned down triggering a sell crossover. Market breadth deteriorated with the market decline in favor of bears; while Nifty 50 stocks A/D ratio was weak at 1:2. The index is expected to trade within a 5600-5800 range with bouts of volatility where supports are expected to be tested. On a convincing break and close out of the range in either direction, the market is likely to take direction.

§  Banking shares declined the most followed by FMCG and Healthcare shares. Interest rate sensitive Realty and Autos shares faced a setback. Cap Goods and Power shares were able to weather the second half selling pressure. India VIX is on the verge of forming a bullish head & shoulder pattern with neckline at 24. A break above will confirm the pattern for a target of 31.75. 
Bullish Setups: IOC, UNTP,  VOLT, LT, SHRS, HCC 
Bearish Setups: HH, DRRD, ACEM, WPRO
§  DJIA has broken past the psychological 12000 mark leading to an extension of the gains toward the 78.6% retracement of the 2008 bear market at 12550. Corresponding SPX target is at 1330. Crude Oil made a double top at $92.50 and declined thereon for a measured target of $80.
§  Interesting chart setupsPLNG, IDBI, HZ, HH, ACEM, DRRD

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