11 January 2011

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) 11 Jan 2011

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
§  Nifty tumbled by 2.4% in yesterdays session after a weekly ‘bearish engulfing’ pattern indicating further near-term downside risks. The selling activity was across the board, as near-term levels have been unable to arrest the decline. Daily MACD has rolled into the negative territory with a sell crossover indicating a bearish trend for the market. Market breadth continues to be strongly in favor of declining stocks. Nifty 50 stocks A/D ratio was at 1:15. Nifty is approaching two crucial swing supports of 5721 and 5690 (November and December lows respectively) which are likely to hold the fall in the immediate near-term and lead to a technical pullback. Rallies are likely to be shallow and short-lived in the current market scenario. On the whole the index down move is likely to extend towards the 200SDMA at 5600.
§  All sectoral indices closed in the red for second consecutive day. Realty, Cap Goods and Bank shares took a knock of >3%, whereas IT and FMCG were the lead hit in the decline. India VIX has closed above the 200 SDMA and we extend the target to 25.35. Bullish Setups: TPWR, IH, BOI, RIL Bearish Setups: MM, MSIL, ACEM, UT, VJYBK, ONGC, HDFC, CNXBANK
§  US and European equity indices ended in the red on profit taking. DJIA faces headwinds at 11,850. We reiterate our bullish outlook on NKY triggering for a target of 11,330. Gold is consolidating around $1370 after having declined from multiple tops at $1425. A decline below $1350 will trigger a sell-off towards $1265.
§  Interesting chart setups: TPWR, RIL, MSIL, MM, ONGC

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