31 January 2011

Deutsche Bank: Hold Maruti Suzuki- 3QFY11 results: Muted/ in line as expected

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Maruti Suzuki Limited Hold
3QFY11 results: Muted and in line as expected


Maruti's 3QFY11 operating results were in line with our estimates after adjusting for prior period impact in employee costs.
Key highlights: * Increase in capacity by 0.1m to 1.4m p.a from the start
of FY12E. In addition, company is set to add capacity of 500K (in Manesar)
in two phases of 250K each in October 2011 and April 2012 resulting in an
overall capacity of 1.9mn in the beginning of FY13E.
* Forex strategy: JPY position is unhedged post Feb-2011 and the company
has decided to keep it open as it expects the JPY to depreciate going forward. We note that costs equivalent to 23% of Maruti's revenues are
denominated in JPY. Euro (only 30% of exports now) and USD receivables
are hedged till 1HFY12.

We maintain our HOLD recommendation with a target price of Rs 1500. Our
FY11E/12E/13E volume estimates are 1.26/1.51/1.75mn. Our FY11E/12E/
13E EPS estimates are Rs 79/100/118. The stock trades at 14xFY12E core
automotive EPS of Rs 69.
Result takeaways: * Realisations at Rs 280,529 were down 1.5% QoQ due
to adverse sales mix in favour of Alto/WagonR/Omni and higher discounts.
EBITDA/car at Rs 25,798 (-6% QoQ).
*Raw material costs rose 110bps QoQ to 80.3% which the management
attributed to the appreciation in JPY and higher discounts (Rs 10,700/car in
3Q vs Rs 9,700/car in 2Q).
* Employee costs (adjusted for prior period items) was 13% higher than
expectations on account of the new wage agreement that has been agreed
upon by the company. This was offset by lower selling & distribution costs
(due to lower exports) and hence EBITDA margin came in line with expectation at 9.1% (-40bps QoQ).
* Company believes that the price hikes taken till now are not adequate to
offset the input cost pressures. Maruti raised car prices by c1.5% in January
2011 in addition to the 1.5% price increase taken till 3QFY11.

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