27 October 2010

Techcheck Daily -- MSCI World Index due for a correction:: Emkay,

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Techcheck Daily
MSCI World Index due for a correction

n     Chart of the Day: MSCI world index signs of weakness as negative divergences emerge, likely correction to the extent of 5-7%, could deepen further if 290 gets broken
n     Nifty 6000-6150 to remain the trading range, momentum signatures though suggest weakness, a short term dip to 5800-5830 cannot be ruled out yet
n     Nifty the medium term uptrend remains intact, target 6500, hence any short term dip can be used for buying
n     Volumes too confirm medium term strength
n     Stocks with positive short term view:
n     Mercator, HBL, IIFL, ICICI Bank, Reliance, Infosys, Andhra Bank
n     Stocks with negative short term view:
n     Exide, Sesa Goa, BHEL, Yes Bank, BOI, BOB, Axis

IDFC Savings Scheme Series I details

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investment opportunity in IDFC Savings Scheme Series I which is a Close ended debt scheme with a tenor of 36 months. The scheme endeavors to generate returns by investing in high quality fixed income securities with a maturity profile matching the maturity of the scheme and generate capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related instruments.

IDFC Savings Scheme will initially deploy at least 75% of the funds collected during the New Fund Offer in high quality debt securities with an intention to generate income. The scheme will invest in a portfolio predominantly of fixed income securities that are generally maturing in line with the duration of the scheme. The scheme shall follow a predominantly passive investment strategy for the fixed income component of the Scheme. The fund will seek to generate capital appreciation by investing in equities. The equity allocation will be benchmarked to Nifty Index and will be invested in either high quality large cap companies or in equity mutual funds offering such portfolios. Depending on overall portfolio considerations and depending on market conditions, the fund manager may also have allocations to equity derivatives. The derivative portfolio will comprise of futures and options on the Nifty Index and will be actively managed by the fund manager within the overall asset allocation of the fund. The allocation to equity derivatives along with cash equity and equity mutual funds will be within the overall equity allocation as per the asset allocation of the scheme.


Scheme Features:
Minimum Investment amount: Rs. 5000 / - 
NFO Closing: 29th Oct, 2010

Maturity: 3 years, maturity date-7th Nov 2013

Liquidity: Close Ended debt scheme listed on NSE.

The debt portfolio will be allocated to good quality AAA and AA+ rated entities

The equity allocation will be managed passively and will be benchmarked against Nifty

Current 3 year AAA yields (~8.25%) and the expected equity allocation is 25%

Benchmark: CRISIL MIP Blended Index

Scheme will allot units before 8th Nov 2010, investors will get benefit of 3 indexations

The fund is suitable for all those conservative investors who are looking for additional returns over and above current fixed income options available without taking risk on capital.  

HSIL- Target price achieved; downgrade to Sell :: Anand Rathi

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HSIL- Target price achieved; downgrade to Sell 
n       2QFY11 Results. HSIL’s profit marginally belied our estimates, mainly due to lower-than-expected performance by container glass division. We have factored in the earnings dilution from the recent QIP issue of Rs1.5bn (net of interest savings). We believe the stock is fairly valued at current levels and does not offer any near-term re-rating triggers. Downgrade to Sell.
n       Sanitaryware segment. The sanitaryware division’s revenue grew 44% yoy on the back of a better product mix and higher realizations. The division recorded an EBIT margin of 19.9% in 2QFY11 (down 15bp yoy and up 110bp qoq). The company plans to increase capacity of its AP/Haryana facility by 0.7/0.3m pieces.
n       Container glass division. The division expanded the Hyderabad unit capacity by 50 tons per day for which it had to shut one of the furnaces for nine weeks. This led to its subdued performance. Revenue was up 14% yoy, though down 14% qoq. The 2QFY11 EBIT margin stood at 12.3%, up 200bp qoq and down 90bp yoy.
n       QIP issue and change in estimates. HSIL raised Rs1.5bn in equity through a QIP (Rs136 a share) in 2QFY11. We lower our EPS estimates by 1%/4% for FY11/12 to factor in a 20% equity dilution, the benefit of interest savings from the QIP proceeds and lower tax rate.
n       Valuations. We retain our target multiple at 11x one-year-forward earnings, in line with the stock’s five-year average. Our revised target price stands at Rs134 (earlier Rs140). Downgrade to Sell.

Foreign Trade -- Trade deficit narrows; stronger rupee to hurt exports soon :: Religare

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Foreign Trade
Trade deficit narrows; stronger rupee to hurt exports soon

The merchandise exports and imports increased by 23.2% and 26.1% YoY for
the month of September’10, to US$ 18.02bn and US$ 27.1bn respectively.
Exports were revived by last year’s lower base as well as revival in global
demand for sub-continent goods, while imports surged owing to the strong
domestic consumption and an appreciating rupee. The trade deficit for the
month of September stands at a 6-month low of US$ 9.1bn as against US$ 13bn
last month. We expect external trade deficit to average at US$ 10.5bn per
month for the rest of the fiscal, with the whole fiscal estimate at US$ 126bn ,
along with an upside bias now as the rupee is likely to gain strength further and
further headwind from slowing global economic revovery and unfavourable
base.

Exports growth healthy but like to be hit by strong rupee: Exports grew by an
annual 23.2 per cent to US$ 18.02bn in September on lower base of last year as
well as revival of global demand for sub-continent goods and export promotion
schemes by commerce ministry. The sectors like engineering, gems & jewellery,
readymade garments, marine products, leather & leather products have
outperformed other sectors in this month. However, we believe that when new
orders are placed in the coming months, the stronger rupee will adversely impact
the competitiveness of Indian exports.

May match the fiscal target of $200bn: The FTD exports have already reached
US$ 103bn, on its way to achieve ministry fiscal target of $200bn. We expect
exports to manage this target, with the downside risk increasing, if the rupee
appreciates further and capital flows continue at the recent momentum.
Trade deficit at record 6-month low, but still a concern: The merchandise
imports have increased 29.9% to US$ 166.5bn during April-September 2010,
while the cumulative trade deficit stood at US $63.2bn. We expect the fiscal end
trade deficit to stand at US$ 126 bn, with an upside bias, much higher than the
pre-crisis level of US$ 118bn in FY07.

Forthcoming Results : 28-Oct-10

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28-Oct-10
Company
Company
Company
Company
Company
ABM Knowledge
Dhunseri Petrochem & Tea
Inox Leisure
OK Play India
Spentex Inds
Action Fin
Digjam
Intl Data Mgmt
ONGC
SREI Infra
Adani Enter
Disa India
ION Exchange
Orchid Chem
Stanpacks India
Aimco Pest
Divyashakti
IRB Infra
Oriental Carbon
Steelcast
Albright & Wilson
DLINK IND
IVP
Oudh Sugar
Stovec Inds
Alkyl Amines
EIH
Jayaswal Neco
Parekh Distr
Sugal & Damani Shr
Allsec Tech
Elango Inds
Jhaveri Cred
Peninsula Land
Sun TV Network
Alok Inds
ELF Trading
Jyothy Lab
Phoenix Mills
Sunflag Iron
Alps Inds
Elgi Equipments
Jyoti
PNB
Suprajit Engr
Andhra Bank
Essar Ship Ports
Kallam Spin
Pradeep Metal
Surabhi Chem
Ansal Buildwell
Facor Steel
Kartik Invest
Premier Syn
Suraj Stainl
Arvind
Fame India
Kavveri Telecom
Prithvi Info
Surana Corp
Asahi India
First Custodian
Kedia Vanaspati
PTC India
Suryalata Spin
Ashirwad Cap
First Financial
Kirloskar Bros
Radha Madhav
Sutlej Textiles
Asian Granito
Firstobject Tech
KSE
Raj Television
SVARTCORP
Asian Hotels (West)
Fortune Fin
LCC Infotech
Rajapalayam
Swaraj Mazda
Balaji Amin
Gandhi Spec
Madhusudan Inds
Raunaq Auto
Swasti Vinay Syn
Balaji Tele
Garnet Constr
Mahaveer Infoway
Real Strips
Swastik Safe
Banaras Beads
GEE
Makers Lab
Regency Cerm
TALWALKAR
BB REALTY
GEI Indl
Maruti Sec
Remsons Inds
Tata Comm
Benares Hotels
Gem Spinners
Mercator Lines
Renaissance Jew
Tata Global Beverages
BGR Energy
Glaxosmithkl Phar
Modern Share
Rolcon Engr
Tayo Rolls
Bhagiradha Che
GM Breweries
Monnet Ispat
SAIL
THINKSOFT
Bhagyashree Lease
Gokul Refoils
Monsanto India
Saksoft
Timex Group
Bharat Gears
Goldiam Intl
Mounteverest Trd
Salzer Elect
Timken India
Birla Ericsson
Granules India
MPS
Sanjay Leasing
Transchem
BOB
Grasim Inds
MSK Projects
Sankhya Info
Tube Invest
Bobshell Elect
GTN Inds
Munjal Showa
Sarda Energy
United Brew
BOC India
Gujarat Gas
Murudeshwar Cer
Saurashtra Cem
Universal Cabl
Brady & Morris
Gujarat Petro
Nagarjuna Agrichm
Schlafhorst Eng
Urja Glob
Bright Bros
Haldyn Glass
Nahar Capital
SCIL Vent
Usha Housing
Cairn India
HEG
Nahar Invest
Setco Auto
Vindhya Tele
CMI FPE
Hexaware Tech
Nahar Spinning
Shanthi Gears
VLS Finance
Colgate Palmolive
HMT
Navneet Pub
Shree Ganesh Jewel
WH Brady
Combat Drugs
Honda Siel Power
Netlink Sol
Shri Lakshmi
Whirlpool
Coromandel Engr Co
HOV Serv
Network18 Media
Shyam Star Gems
Yash Management
Dagger Forst
IDBI Bank
NHPC
Sical Logistics
Zee Entert
Daulat Sec
IFB Agro
NMDC
SNL Bearings
ZF Steering
Denso India
India Gelatine
Noida Toll
South India Pap
DHANLAK BANK
India Motor
Odyssey Tech
Sovereign Diam