23 September 2010
IIFL: Gujarat Gas buy target 420
Long-term gas contract signed with BG
• Gujarat Gas (GGAS) signs 3.5-year R-LNG contract with BG. BG to
start supplying 0.5mscmd gas from October 2010.
• Deal would cut down GGAS’s reliance on spot LNG purchases, so
we view it positively.
• Undersupplied industrial markets improve GGAS’s ability to retain
margins at around Rs4/scm.
• We maintain CY09-12ii earnings CAGR estimate at 20%. BUY.
GGAS signs mid-term R-LNG contract with BG: In the first such deal
by a private gas distribution company in India, GGAS has concluded a
3.5-year agreement to source 0.5mscmd (15% of CY10ii volumes) of RLNG
from its parent BG. Gas supplies would commence from 1st October
2010. We estimate delivered price of gas at US$8-9/mmbtu. Through
CY05-09, GGAS’s gas volumes were flat at ~2.8mscmd owing to supply
constraints, so from CY10 the company had stepped up spot purchases
to grow volumes. The deal would help GGAS reduce its reliance on spot
gas from the present ~20% to ~10% in CY11.
Expect margins to be maintained: GGAS has already signed back-toback
agreements with some of its ~750 existing industrial consumers
and around 50 new consumers. Given the undersupplied market (supply
of 3.5mscmd vs demand of >5msmcd), we think GGAS is well-placed to
pass on fluctuations in gas prices and maintain its spread/unit at ~Rs4.
Management has indicated that it would continue to look for more such
deals over the next 12-24 months to increase its long-term gas portfolio
for existing as well as new circles.
In a “sweet spot”; we retain BUY: We reiterate that GGAS is in a
“sweet spot”, given undersupplied industrial markets and its wellestablished
supply network. We maintain our CY09-12ii earnings CAGR
estimate of 20%. While Gujarat Gas’s valuation, at 19x CY11ii EPS, is at
par with regional peers, we think the stock offers a thematic play on the
gas retailing business that is set for a massive take off. We retain BUY.
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Gujarat Gas,
IIFL
NSE bulk deals- Sept 23, 2010
Security Name | Client Name | Buy/Sell | Quantity Traded | Trade Price |
Atlas Cycles (Haryana) Lt | CNB FINWIZ PRIVATE LIMITED | BUY | 24612 | 284.03 |
Atlas Cycles (Haryana) Lt | CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD. | BUY | 31987 | 288.44 |
Chemfab Alkalis Limited | JAINAM INVESTMENTS | BUY | 120000 | 65.21 |
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Bulk deals,
NSE
BSE Bulk deals Sept 23 2010
Company | Client Name | Deal Type * | Quantity | Price ** |
ABL Biotech | VAMIKA SECURITIES SERVICES | B | 41040 | 19.77 |
ABL Biotech | SUNDARARAMAN GOWRI SHANKAR | B | 114015 | 20.10 |
ABL Biotech | R RAGHAVAN | S | 115000 | 20.10 |
Aditya Ispat | HITESH GOVINDLAL SHAH | B | 40000 | 15.62 |
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BSE,
Bulk deals
FII & DII trading activity on NSE and BSE as on 23-Sep-2010.
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment | ||||||||||||||||
The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 23-Sep-2010. | ||||||||||||||||
|
Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment | ||||||||||||||||
The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance, MFs and New Pension System on 23-Sep-2010. | ||||||||||||||||
|
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
DII,
FII,
trading activity
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 23-Sep-2010
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 23-Sep-2010 | |||||||
BUY | SELL | OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY | |||||
No. of contracts | Amt in Crores | No. of contracts | Amt in Crores | No. of contracts | Amt in Crores | ||
INDEX FUTURES | 57592 | 1719.19 | 91018 | 2719.59 | 785548 | 23438.81 | -1000.40 |
INDEX OPTIONS | 169785 | 4976.58 | 186924 | 5358.91 | 2970568 | 88522.74 | -382.33 |
STOCK FUTURES | 107576 | 3094.42 | 131566 | 3852.42 | 1393141 | 41172.57 | -758.01 |
STOCK OPTIONS | 19032 | 636.86 | 19329 | 646.33 | 55111 | 1704.92 | -9.47 |
Total | -2150.22 |
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derivative statistics,
FII
Gray market premium Sept 23, 2010
Company Name | Offer Price | Premium |
(Rs.) | (Rs.) | |
Indosolar Ltd. | 29 (Lower Band) | 0.50 to 0.55(Paise) |
Tirupati Inks (FPO) | 43 (Upper Band) | 8.5 to 9 |
Career PointInfosystems | 295 to 310 | 150 to 155 |
Eros International | 158 to 175 | 43 to 45 |
Microsec Fin | 113 to 118 | 18 to 20 |
RamkyInfrastructure Ltd. | 405 to 468 | 35 to 39 |
Orient Green Power | 47 to 55 | 2 to 2.50 |
Electro Steel | 10 to 11 | 1.10 to 1.20 |
Gallantt Ispat | 50 (Fixed Price) | 7 to 7.5 |
VA TechWabag | 1230 to 1310 | 300 to 305 |
CantabilRetail | 127 to 135 | 14 to 15 |
Sea TV Network | 100 to 110 | 19 to 20 |
AshokBuildcon | 297 to 324 | 11 to 13 |
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
gray market,
Grey market premium,
IPO
Ramky Infrastructure Limited IPO subscription details
RAMKY INFRASTRUCTURE LTD
Total Issue Size | 10947294 |
Total Bids Received | 31621464 |
Total Bids Received at Cut-off Price | 3096856 |
No. of times issue is subscribed | 2.89 |
Sr.No. | Category | No.of shares offered/reserved | No. of shares bid for | No. of times of total meant for the category |
1 | Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) | 5712727 | 25839842 | 4.52 |
1(a) | Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) | 13937182 | ||
1(b) | Domestic Financial Institutions(Banks/ Financial Institutions(FIs)/ Insurance Companies) | 9113482 | ||
1(c) | Mutual Funds | 1602650 | ||
1(d) | Others | 1186528 | ||
2 | Non Institutional Investors | 1308641 | 1893500 | 1.45 |
2(a) | Corporates | 1650964 | ||
2(b) | Individuals (Other than RIIs) | 242536 | ||
2(c) | Others | 0 | ||
3 | Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) | 3925926 | 3888122 | 0.99 |
3(a) | Cut Off | 3096856 | ||
3(b) | Price Bids | 791266 |
Updated as on 23 September 2010 at 1830 hrs
ICICI Sec: Bank Valuations rich: Time to be selective…OBC, SBI, Yes Bank and SIB
Valuations rich: Time to be selective…
A quarter of the weight for the BFSI segment in the Nifty has done more
than its bit to help the Nifty scale a new 32 month high. The banking index
has run up in anticipation of the positive macro outlook. Expectation of
higher credit offtake during the busy season (H2FY11), improving NIM in a
rising interest rate scenario, higher recoveries from written off assets,
receding pressure on fresh slippages and improving return ratios have
kept the sector in focus. Most of the banks have hit fresh 52 week or life
time highs in recent period. Thus, one needs to be selective about which
stocks to hold in the sector. The industry is well on track to achieve over
20% credit growth in FY11 (recorded 19.4% growth for the fortnight
ended August 27, 2010) while deposit growth is still sluggish at 14.4%
despite the recent hike in deposit rate (40 banks have raised their deposit
rate while 26 raised their lending rate) posing a big challenge ahead.
ô€‚ƒ The path ahead…
The busy season is expected to drive credit growth. Hence, we believe
liquidity in the banking system will stay tight for the rest of the year.
Hence, deposit rates will continue the uptrend. IIP growth, which bounced
back to record a 13.8% YoY jump in July after a small blip in June shows
robust growth momentum. GDP is now expected to grow at 8.5% in
FY11. However, inflation is still a dominant area of concern for the RBI.
The banking sector has been spearheading the market rally with valuation
multiples for most banks getting re-rated in the past quarter. Leaving
aside short-term aberrations in this space, we have seen that valuations
are factoring in most of the positives for FY12E for certain banks. A small
correction in PSU bank stocks on account of MTM hit on the G-Sec
investment book cannot be ruled out as yields hover near 8%.
Even though our earlier target price has been achieved for most of the
banks under our coverage, we believe that some more upside cannot be
ruled out in the near term on account of bullish sentiment and higher
weightage in the index. We believe banks like OBC, SBI, Yes Bank and SIB
would continue to see fresh upsides. We suggest profit booking in HDFC
Bank purely from a rich valuation perspective. PNB has more than trebled
in the last one year and, hence, looks stretched.
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