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• India added 17.2m GSM subs in November, the highest ever
monthly GSM net adds: The 17% M/M increase in net adds is driven
primarily by an increase of net adds at Idea Cellular and Vodafone.
• Idea: strong net adds; Bharti: momentum sustained: Idea
Cellular’s net adds at 2.8m in November are the highest we have on
record and are up 55% M/M. Bharti’s net adds at 3.1m are up ~3%
M/M and are sustaining above the 3m mark. Vodafone too reported a
healthy net add number of 3.1m, +26% M/M, the highest since March
this year. Overall, we believe the holiday season promotions have
helped in November.
• Only 70% of India’s base is active: A recent report by the TRAI
states that only 70% of India’s subscriber base is active – i.e. makes
calls or sends SMS on a regular basis. Bharti came out on top here with
89% of its base active followed by Idea at 88%, Vodafone at 75%,
RCOM at 67%, BSNL and Aircel at 59%, while S Tel was at the
bottom with only 24% active subs. We believe this highlights the
strength of the GSM incumbents (and their conservative counting)
relative to the new telcos.
• Grouping Uninor, Videocon, S Tel and Etisalat as the “new” players,
we note that they account for 5% of the sub base now but also note that
their share of net adds is down ~3pp in November
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