29 December 2010

Edelweiss Research - December, 29 2010- Edelweiss Technical Reflection

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
§  Nifty ended an extremely narrow ranged session with a slender loss of two points, again closing below the psychological 6000 mark. This indicates the lack of conviction among the bulls to take the upper hand despite positive momentum on their side. The 50 DMA which has started to turn down continues to pose as a hurdle for an advance. The index continues to trade with lackluster participation owing to the year-end holiday lull. MACD on the daily chart has moved above the zero line which would help the bulls launch a rally once the participation improves. Hourly oscillators are showing mixed readings as depicted by the sideways price action. Market breadth was marginally in favour of declines. Nifty 50 stocks A/D ratio was better at 1.6:1. Nifty is likely to find support at 5980-5960 where trading longs can be initiated. Overall the market continues to be constricted to a range of 5920-6050 for the derivatives expiry week.

§  Buying interest was seen in defensive sectors like FMCG, Pharma and IT. Among the losers were Oil & Gas, Autos and Cap Goods shares. The short-term stance is likely to be positive on Bank Nifty as long as 11,400 is held. L&T is trading in a triangle pattern with key trigger points at 1918 for a bearish breakdown and 2020 for a bullish breakout. In either case a substantial move is imminent in the stock. Bullish Setups: BRCH, SHRS, PLNG, SESA, DIVI, NLC, KAIR Bearish Setups:BJAUT, KMBH, DRRD, AL

§  US & European equity indices are oscillating in a narrow range owing to the year ended light sessions. Asian indices are experiencing a short-term corrective phase. The Shanghai Composite index has a crucial support of 2705, which if breached is likely to lead to a deeper correction to the 2575 multiple supports area. Gold has triggered a breakout above the short-term consolidation phase. The yellow metal is expected to move above the all-time high of $1430.

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